It is the thermometer of a current fight, but that will never be reflected in the polls. At least not this year. In the middle of the bid for candidacies in the City of Buenos Aires, a new survey went out to measure image and votes of four key PRO leaders. Two hard and two moderate. On one side, Mauricio Macri Y Patricia bullrich, which make a tandem so that the former minister heads the Buenos Aires list. Of the other, Maria Eugenia Vidal Y Fernan Quirós, allies that Horacio Rodríguez Larreta imagined (he still imagines in her case) precisely to stop Bullrich. How did it go? To all relatively well, even very well in electoral terms, with a plus for the partners of the Buenos Aires head of government.
The study that advances Clarion this thursday is from CB Public Opinion Consultant, a firm with origins in Córdoba that makes measurements throughout the country. For more than a year ago elaborates an interesting ranking of governors and also evaluates leaders with national projection in the 24 provinces. She was one of the first to test Facundo Manes, the fashionable Buenos Aires radical in this way. And it comes from making a good prognosis in the recent election in Misiones.
it also measured the voting intention of Ricardo López Murphy
Macri and Bullrich: image and votes of the “hard”
While it is ruled out that the former president is running as a candidate this year, as he himself remarked at the end of last year, CB he decided to measure it as a way to test his weight in the district where he forged his career and made the leap to the major leagues of politics.
Perhaps in the same way that it happens to Cristina Kirchner in the Province, the former president shows a negative image balance in the City, but retains a high electoral potential.
Macri is the the only one of the four PRO leaders evaluated in this Buenos Aires poll with the highest valuation against (54.8%) than in favor. However, it shows a considerable vote intention floor (20.8% “would surely vote for it”) and a ceiling that is also good (it reaches 45.5% when 24.7% of “could vote for it” is added.
In the “must” of the former president, as well as having the highest negative image in CABA, his electoral rejection is consistent: 47.7% “would not be interested in voting for him”.
Bullrich appears with a similar tonality but better balance. She is also a leader who generates love and hatred in the district, but in her case with a differential in favor: she combines 51.5% positive image with 43.5% negative image.
The electoral numbers of the former minister for the City also take a leap: her floor (“I would surely vote for her” grows to 25.5% and the ceiling to 48.1% (adding the 22.6% of “I could vote for her”). In the same vein, the rejection falls (43.5% “He would not be interested in voting for her”).
Interesting figures, but without reaching the limits that Larreta himself achieved in 2019, when he exceeded 50 points to win his re-election in the first round.
Vidal and Quirós: image and votes of the “moderates”
When the survey falls on Larreta’s allies, the numbers grow even more. Surely because due to their more dialogist profile, they “fish” support outside of the macrismo and / or hard anti-Kirchnerism.
The former governor, who will define if she is a candidate (it sounds in CABA and is practically ruled out in Province) when she returns from the United States, combines 61% positive and 34% negative image.
Y its electoral potential takes a qualitative leap: 34.7% of the floor (“I would surely vote for it”) and 57.6% of the ceiling (adding the 22.9 points of “I could vote for it”). Perhaps due to figures similar to these, the head of government had proposed to Bullrich to settle candidacies through the polls, a methodology that the former minister rejected.
As for Quirós, the Minister of Health who became known to the general public due to the pandemic and has a very high acceptance in public opinion, is the one that shows the best image balance: 60.5% positive and only 16% negative.
Its electoral projection is also very good: shows the best floor (36.1% “would surely vote for it”) and a ceiling slightly below that of Vidal (55.9%, adding 19.8% (of “I could vote for him”).
A temptation for these legislatures, although close to the minister and Larreta himself already said that due to the complexity of the pandemic, it would not be a good sign to run him out of management to play him politically.
A STEP, with López Murphy as guest
Finally, regarding the intern of Together for the Change in the City, CB measured how a STEP would come out with the four leaders mentioned plus López Murphy.
The moderates won, with a technical tie between Vidal (20.5%) and Quirós (19.8%), one notch below is Macri (14%), fourth is Bullrich (10.9%) and the former liberal minister closes with 3 ,two%.
They complete “other” (5.2%), “I don’t know” (4.8%) and “I would not vote for any” (21.6%).