The political earthquake that caused the motion of censure presented by the PSOE and Ciudadanos on March 10 to displace the PP from the regional government has also upset the political preferences of the citizens of the Region of Murcia. The main reason for these changes is in the strong social rejection of the operation agreed by socialists and oranges. According to Cemop’s Spring 2021 Barometer, presented this morning at the Regional Assembly, 59.5% of those interviewed consider that the motion of censure was bad or very bad, compared to 20.9% who approved it.
Like is logic, the highest percentage of rejection occurs among the voters of the PP (87%) and Vox (83%), but it is striking that among the respondents who remember having voted for Cs, there are also a majority (67%) who rate the motion of censure agreed by their party as bad and very bad. The consequence of this is the electoral collapse of Cs in the Region, and the loss of seats for the Socialists, a decline that clearly favors the popular.
If regional elections are held today in the Region of Murcia, the PP would win them overwhelmingly with 43.7% of the votes, which would bring it 22 seats in the Regional Assembly, only one below the absolute majority. The results of the survey of the Spring Barometer of 2021, carried out by the Center for Murcian Studies of Public Opinion (Cemop), are devastating for the partners of the failed motion of censure presented on March 10 against the regional president, the popular Fernando López Miras, since the PSOE and Ciudadanos would lose between the two eight deputies.
Specific, the PSOE would get 14 seats, three less than in May 2019, when its secretary general and candidate for the presidency, Diego Conesa, returned to win for the party of the fist and the rose a regional election in the Region twenty-five years later.
The main victim of the strong rejection of the motion of censure among the population of the Region is Citizens, which would lose five of the six seats it now holds, which would reduce its role in the autonomous Parliament to merely testimonial. The 3.4% percentage of votes for Cs also places it one step away from being left out of the autonomous Parliament.
The reinforcement of the right in the Region shown by the Cemop survey would allow Vox to reach 6 seats, two more than now. In this way, the PP could enjoy, with specific support from the Santiago Abascal party, a solid majority in the Chamber.
The representation of citizens in the Regional Assembly would be completed by United We Can, which would keep the two deputies it has.
The survey is based on 820 interviews with citizens of the Region carried out between May 4 – the date of the regional elections in Madrid – and May 14, days in which the PP candidate Isabel Díaz Ayuso savored the overwhelming victory achieved in the Madrid community.
According to the survey authors, «no sign of the appearance of Más Región is recorded either at the electoral level or at the parliamentary level, neither via flight of votes from Unidos Podemos nor by transfers from the PSOE ».
The Spring Barometer 2021 highlights the fact that the PP has been the main beneficiary of the motion planned by PSOE and Cs against it, as well as all the events derived from it. Not even the opposition campaign, with repeated accusations of defectors both to the Cs deputies who did not vote on the motion and to the regional government that welcomed them after being expelled from their party, seems to have made a dent in the political preferences of Murcians.
Voters in the Region declare themselves mostly in favor (48.9%) of the concentration of all center-right political options in a single national party, a possibility that aspires to lead the PP and in the Region is rejected by the 20th , 9% of those interviewed.
The management of the current regional government continues to receive approval from citizens, 41.3% of whom qualify it as good or very good, compared to 21.6% who perceive it as bad or very bad. On the other hand, the assessment of the work carried out by the opposition parties is very negative. Only 11.3% consider the opposition made by the Socialists to be good or very good, while 47.7% rate it as bad or very bad.