The Greens are already the leading political force in Germany. Five months before the general elections and after the nomination of the environmentalist Annalena Baerbock and the conservative Armin Laschet as candidates for the Federal Chancellery, the German political scene has taken a radical turn that suggests a very lively electoral campaign. This is clear from the weekly survey of the Forsa demographic institute published today, which predicts the collapse of the formations of the Union – Bavarian Christian Democrats and Social Christians (CDU / CSU) – and the explosive rise in the intention to vote for the Greens. Compared to the results of seven days ago, the poll highlights that Federal Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives lose seven points and fall to 21% of potential votes, while environmentalists rise 5 and stand at 28% of possible votes suffrages. Never before have the Greens been in the lead and with such an advantage over the Union in a nationwide poll on voting intention in Germany.
The fall of the CDU / CSU did not, however, benefit its partners in the grand coalition that governs Berlin. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) also lost two points and fell to 13%, its lowest forecast in history for legislative elections. On the other hand, the liberals of the FDP rose two points to 12%, while the Left gained one to 7% and the ultranationalists of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) remained stable with 11%. The survey was carried out on Tuesday as soon as it was known that Armin Laschet, Prime Minister of North Rhine-Westphalia and president of the CDU, had imposed himself on the leader of the CSU and head of the Bavarian government, Markus Söder, in a cumbersome duel for decide who would be the conservative candidate for the Federal Chancellery and for Merkel’s succession in power. The day before, the Greens had nominated in a harmonious process and with the absolute backing of their bases and executive Baerbock as their candidate to lead the next German executive.
“Contrary to what was presumed, CDU / CSU had not lost sympathy during the competition between Laschet and Söder for the candidacy for the Federal Chancellery. Until the decision was made “, says the analysis of the Forsa experts. They emphasize that the electorate especially negatively values the way in which the Rhenish prime minister nominated as a Union candidate, despite the fact that the Bavarian leader was the favorite of the people and had significant support among the Christian Democrats. Only 32% of those consulted consider that the decision of the CDU executive to impose Laschet as head of the conservative list was a correct decision. 47% would have preferred Söder. Union voters are even more critical: 58% of CDU supporters and 88% of CSU supporters wanted the Bavarian prime minister as the Conservative candidate for the head of the federal government.
A nomination that contrasts with that of the co-president of Los Verdes. 54% of Germans celebrate the election of Annalena Baerbock to lead the election campaign of environmentalists. Only 23% would have preferred Robert Habeck, also president of the thriving formation, as a candidate for the Federal Chancellery, who voluntarily yielded to his leadership partner the possibility of struggles for Merkel’s succession in power. 79% of the supporters of the environmental party celebrate Baerbock’s nomination. The 40-year-old international law expert is also the people’s favorite to become the next head of the German government. In a hypothetical direct election, 32% of Germans would vote for Annalena Baerbock as Federal Chancellor, while only 15% would vote for the conservative Laschet and another 15% for the Social Democrat Olaf Scholz, currently Federal Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister.
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