The Executive took advantage the Official State Gazette (BOE) on Wednesday, December 28 to justify in a neat way the reasons that have led him to apply a bank tax that will be levied at a rate of 4.8% both the interest and the interest margin of those entities that had earned more than 800 million euros for both concepts in 2019. Government estimates raise the collection for this tribute to 3,000 million euros between 2022 and 2023 at a rate of 1,500 million each year.
Faced with the bad omens of the Spanish Banking Association (AEB), which warned of the negative impact on the granting of credit, the Executive took out all the ammunition in the text that details the fine print of the bank tax to demonize a sector that, as it has done with the energy sector, believes that it has swum and continues to enjoy an abundance of benefits despite the economic break. “I don’t seem to suppose [el impuesto] a disproportionate amount considering past or estimated profits for the coming years and dividends distributed to shareholders”.
And for this, it draws on the CNMV statistics that reveal that the five giants that are part of the Ibex 35 (Bankinter, BBVA, Caixabank, Sabadell and Santander) “achieved almost 20,000 million profits in 2021”. And add to those good omens the latest forecast from Morgan Stanley. “Before the announcement of the ECB rate increase, it calculates the benefits in 2023 at 26,000 million.” Growth of 30% in two years in a hyperinflationary context and in which, for now, there have been four rate hikes since July 21, going from 0% to 2.5%.
And it precisely uses the increase in the price of money as the main reason that will accelerate the benefits of the bank. Crossing the statistics on corporate tax with that of the average rates of mortgages, the Government analyzes three different forks to calculate future income. If the rates move below 2%, the interests exceed 38,000 million and the interest margin reaches 26,512 million. If they are between 2% and 3%, as at present, interest soars to 65,210 million and the margin to 31,258 million. In other words, banks almost double their income and pocket an additional 31,956 million with the current rate hikes. And if the price of money climbs above 3%, interest exceeds 103,000 million and the interest margin exceeds 35,000 million. “Therefore it seems clear that the rise in rates not only raises the interest charged but also the interest margin,” says the BOE.
The government also takes advantage of question the remuneration policies of the bank with its shareholders in 2021, in which the rates were at 0%. “It is revealing that they distributed dividends for 13,400 million and another 3,500 million in the first quarter of 2022.”
The cost will barely represent 0.06% of the value of the assets
In his argument in the BOE, the Executive tries to compare the cost of the bank tax (1,500 million euros in 2022 and 2023, respectively) with two other magnitudes to relativize its impact. In the first place, he compares it with the value of the assets of the large banking groups. “It barely represents 0.06% of the value of the assets”
Secondly, it compares it with the outstanding balance of loans granted and deposits received from individuals. In the first case, the banks have borrowed 656,161 million over two years. “Only in 2021, mortgages for 82,408 million were constituted.” In the case of deposits, the figure rises to 917,105 million euros.
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