Imported alcohol will not immediately disappear from the shelves in Russia, but the assortment may gradually be washed out, suggested Pavel Shapkin, chairman of the National Union for the Protection of Consumer Rights (NSZPP), head of the Center for the Development of National Alcohol Policy. He described the possible future of the alcoholic beverage market in Russia in a conversation with Lenta.ru.
The fact is that suppliers and retail chains negotiate in contracts not only the terms of payment and delivery, but also prices, as well as some force majeure, including the risks of a change in the exchange rate, Shapkin explained, and these contracts cannot be arbitrarily reviewed.
Washing out of assortment threatens. It is clear that alcohol cannot instantly disappear from the shelves, that is, just some types of wine, for example, or whiskey, or other foreign drinks will gradually be washed off the shelves. In return, it is unlikely that something will be supplied. Although there are terms of contracts with networks that suppliers are obliged to maintain an assortment, but here, probably, this will be somehow additionally regulated between suppliers and networks
Pricing
According to Shapkin, retail chains are unlikely to raise alcohol prices due to the current situation, as they do not want to lose customers. “People will buy what will be more affordable – this is beer, vodka, first of all. Russian wine will hardly be more affordable, it is becoming more expensive, and in the face of reduced competition, most likely, our wine producers will not lower prices, there will simply be a redistribution of demand,” he specified.
On the other hand, as noted by the chairman of the NWFP, alcohol prices may rise for other reasons, namely due to the rise in the price of grain, excise tax and additional regulatory factors such as counters and labeling. However, Shapkin did not rule out that grain prices would stabilize.
Our raw materials became more expensive, now there will be fewer export markets. Grain growers will still have China and a few more countries, but most likely, this will affect the fact that prices for grain in the domestic market will stabilize. Accordingly, there will be no increase in alcohol for beer and vodka, where grain is used.
Import substitution
If there is demand, Russian producers are always ready to increase the range of vodka and alcoholic beverages, Shapkin said. Over the past 10 years, he said, the demand for these drinks has fallen by about 50 percent.
“As for brewers, they also experienced a significant reduction in production over the past 10 years, by about 20 percent, while the brewers themselves have become three times more than 10 years ago, that is, I think that this the niche will also be filled,” he shared.
Previously, the largest importers and distributors of alcohol in Russia were Simple and Luding
— stopped shipments for an indefinite period due to changes in the euro exchange rate. Later at Luding reported TASS that resumed deliveries, adjusting prices taking into account the exchange rate.
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