The humanitarian and infrastructure disaster caused by the Texas winter storm demonstrates that catastrophic weather events could begin to move away from being strange events to becoming more of a new normal constant.
It should also remind us that a new era in which the Extreme weather it is normal will impel – or force – some to migrate to new places less affected by this climate.
A report resulting from an association between ProPublica Y The New York Times Magazine, in collaboration with Pulitzer Center, revealed that: “Throughout the United States, near 162 million people —Almost 1 in 2— will most likely experience a decline in the quality of their environment, especially more heat and less water.
Power lines in Houston. AP Photo / David J. Phillip, File.
For 93 million of them, the changes could be in particular severe.
Our analysis suggests that by 2070, if carbon emissions rise to extreme levels, at least 4 million Americans could find themselves living on the fringes, in places no doubt outside the ideal range for human life ”.
It is likely that in the United States alone – not to mention other parts of the world – there are million climate migrants in the next decades.
This could restructure the country, in cultural, economic and political terms.
But it is not just this climatic migration that threatens to do that. There will be at least three other migrations important issues that will develop at the same time in this country: immigration from other countries, urbanization led by younger people, and the reverse migration of the black community from cities in the north and west to the south.
According to a report by Pew Research Center of 2015, “immigrants and their children will represent the 36 percent of the US population in 2065, which equals or exceeds the maximum levels last obtained at the beginning of the 20th century.
That percentage will represent a duplication since 1965 (when it was at 18 percent) and a considerable increase from the current 26 percent ”.
The report states that “the arrival of new immigrants and the birth of their children and grandchildren represents 55 percent of the increase in the US population from 193 million in 1965 to 324 million today.
New projections from the Pew Research Center also estimate that the nation will grow to 441 million in 2065 and that 88 percent of the increase will be linked to future immigrants and their descendants ”.
The displacement of a white majority and the emergence of states with Hispanic majority in the Southwest they will have important consequences.
Furthermore, we will get to the point where the population Hispanic will be almost twice as black and the Asian population will also be more numerous than the black one.
This will rearrange the meaning and influence of minority groups.
Then there is the migration of the youngest Americans.
As NPR reported in 2014, youth moving from towns to big cities “has long been the history of America’s small towns,” but “it turns out that the millennial generation is further accelerating demographic change. .
In fact, this could be the generation more ‘captivated by the great lights of the city ‘of history’.
NPR added: “While the number of millennials has increased a bit in small towns and rural areas, it is nothing compared to the growth of their numbers in suburbs and cities.”
And as Bloomberg reported in 2019: “A new peer-reviewed study (the article will be published soon in the Journal of Regional Science) reveals that young people have not only been the driving force behind the urban resurgence of the last two decades, but prefer to live in central urban neighborhoods far more than previous generations during the same stages of life.
Finally, there is the reverse migration of the black community from the cities of the North, Midwest and West to the South.
After the last census, The New York Times ireported: “The percentage of the country’s black population living in the south has reached its highest point in half a century, according to census data… as black residents younger and more educated they have left the declining cities of the Northeast and Midwest in search of better opportunities. “
The Times continues: “The percentage of black population growth that has occurred in the South over the last decade – the highest since 1910, before the Great African American Migration Northward – has overturned some long-held assumptions. ”.
I predict and hope that this reverse migration go ahead and step up.
Large migratory movements are going to drastically change the United States in the near future and turn geography and power structures upside down.
It is difficult to determine how the country will get out of this.
We may well be on the brink of a new America, a reorganized one, in which power, to some extent, is redistributed and exercised by actors and centers of power. emerging.
The United States, as we know it, is likely a thing of the past.
Migratory movements have continually reshaped this country and that trend shows no sign of ending.
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