Airef (independent fiscal responsibility authority) provides that one in three people will take their retirement in 2035 from the current 11.3% (in 2025, accumulated until February). This institution already detects an increase in retirement delayed from 5.4% of 2022 for the latest pension reforms, as explained in the technical documents of its “Long -term sustainability opinion of public administrations” that he has published This Thursday.
“In 2023, it is observed that this increase was concentrated in the delays of one year,” which is directly related to the approval of the pension reform of the coalition government. When stretching the projection, “30% of people delay their retirement three years, or up to 68 years”, to improve the amount they will enter after leaving the labor market, according to the public pension system in force.
In the same vein, the Fiscal Authority indicates that “the aggregate data shows a decrease of 10 points the early retirement” of 44.5% of 2016 to about 30% in 2024, always with respect to the total highs. A trend that “continues in 2025”.
“However, voluntary anticipated retirements showed a rebound in 2021 and 2022, which could be explained by the impact of inflation,” Airef sources comment. “The revaluation of pensions based on the CPI (consumer price index) compensated more than the penalty for anticipating retirement,” they continue.
The analysis of the fiscal authority stops in these “voluntary” anticipated retirements, which has been reduced from 23% of 2022 to 17.8% of 2023. Meanwhile, if the anticipated retirements are studied by type of pension, the most important fall in the maximums, of 11.8% of 2021 to 0.8% of 2023.
With these cases, “the effective retirement age would go from 65.2 years to 66.2 years in 2035 [para el promedio de las personas que salen del mercado laboral]”, Concludes in the exercise of Airef estimates.
The team of economists of the independent institution makes a comparison of the evolution of the outputs of the labor market, according to age, comparing before the pension reform, then and the projection to 2035. The result is that, in 2019, 50% of the people retired at age 65, and most of the rest did so in nearby ages.
In 2023, this border was reduced and it was already only for 30%, extending the hump of the retirement ages curve towards 66 and 67 years. For those ages, retirement rates remained between 20% and 10%, respectively, again with respect to the total highs. According to Airef, in 2035, the reform will cause 30% of people to leave the labor market at age 68.
No additional adjustments
At the end of March, the Fiscal Authority published its expected report of the pension system, in which it ruled that “the expense rule is fulfilled” provided by the Government. However, the organism led by Cristina Herrero was very critical of The analysis commissioned by the Executivewhich considers that it offers “a partial vision of sustainability” of the public pension system.
The Airef report concluded that the average expenditure on pensions between 2022 and 2050 remains at 13.2%, so the automatic clause that would require the government to take additional adjustment measures is not activated.
The tax authority places pension spending in the period in 14.6%, which is compensated by income measures that amount to 1.4% – one of them is the delay of retirement. Thus, the final figure of average expenditure is at 13.2%, below 13.4% that would have demanded that the government approve adjustments, whether outside the income or spending.
The Airef analysis is the first after the pension reform of the Progressive Coalition Government, approved in three phases between 2021 and 2024, so it had generated a lot of expectation as a thermometer of the sustainability of the public system.
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