Summer seems to be finally running out of air. Autumn and winter are soon in the starting blocks. According to an initial forecast, the two seasons could hold a little surprise in store.
Munich – The weather has rarely caused storms of enthusiasm in Germany this year. The sky is too often overcast for that, the sun is too seldom seen, precipitation is frequent and not infrequently heavy. In addition, extremes such as storms with hurricane gusts, heavy rain, lightning and thunder are anything but rare. And the temperatures are hardly going up.
Yes, the summer of 2021, which is now starting in its final month, is already coming with autumnal overtones. And then probably coasts to a leisurely pace. What should the trend look like in the coming months? Even if it is not yet really foreseeable how autumn and winter will turn out, the weather experts of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) from the USA dare to draw a first diagram for the two upcoming seasons.
Winter weather in Germany: Average and therefore unusual temperatures
Dominik Jung von has this so-called US model wetter.net examined a little more closely. “These are all scientific things. These prognoses are feasible, but nobody should base their lives on them, ”warns the qualified meteorologist in his introduction.
But the weather experts from overseas are already setting an initial trend. Or as Jung puts it: “We can only try to estimate: How do the months go?” The answer: pretty average. Which for us, in view of the past few years, means: unfamiliar. Because normality has long since become the exception.
Winter weather in Germany: Only in December and January a little too warm
September, October and November shouldn’t be too warm or too cold. This means that the tempo rates seem to have leveled off over the long term. When did that last happen?
December and January will be 0.5 to one degree too warm compared to the climate mean, Jung reads off. Exceptions are the Baltic Sea coast (December), the outer northwest (January) and Schleswig-Holstein (both months). At the end of the winter season, February should follow, which will also bring normal temperatures.
Winter weather in Germany: “We could perceive temperatures as too cold”
That sounds great for the climate at first, even if global warming was of course not stopped. Jung looks at the NOAA model with completely different concerns: “Normal months that weren’t too warm or not too cold haven’t really existed for a long time. Often we were way too warm, above the climate mean. “
He concludes: “Therefore it could turn out that we will find autumn and winter too cold. Because we are no longer used to these normal months in the past few years. ”Because, as is well known, humans are creatures of habit and have long since come to terms with the higher temperatures.
Winter weather in Germany: According to the meteorologist, less precipitation would be positive
According to Jung, it is “a very exciting development that is emerging”. In addition, both autumn and winter should be “neither too wet nor too dry”. This would be “very positive for a real winter in our country. The past few years have always brought a rather wet winter. ”At least that is what has always been forecast.
“That often spoke in favor of the classic westerly weather conditions with the mild air masses from the Atlantic. But that doesn’t seem to be the case this time, ”explains the meteorologist. So everything is a little different this year.
Winter weather in Germany: Ski and snowboard fans could get their money’s worth in the Alps
On top of that, there is still a little treat for ski and snowboard fans, because “a little more rainfall than usual” should be expected in the Alpine region. “Maybe a very snowy winter in the Alps,” Jung speculates.
But, even at the end of his remarks, he does not forget to emphasize that these prospects are still “not a classic weather forecast”. Jung prefers to call it “monthly climatological trends”. (mg)
List of rubric lists: © Sina Schuldt / dpa