Without weapons, the F-16 is worthless, say practitioners. The first jets have landed in Ukraine. Now it is important to clarify what it should, can and may do.
Kiev – “The F-16 will certainly not take on the role of a classic ground attack aircraft,” says Markus Reisner. The colonel of the Austrian Federal Army recently warned in ZDF against overestimating the capabilities of this type of aircraft, the first of which have just landed in Ukraine. It is also too valuable for that – Reisner describes this fighter jet as a high-value weapon in the Ukraine war and sees its opportunity in being used as such against Vladimir Putin.
For example, by equipping them with appropriate air-to-ground weapons, as Reisner says. Ukrainian Pravda in turn reports that Russian military bloggers have tried to downplay the influence of the machines on the war. “This reaction even undermines Russian propaganda efforts that have tried to portray the delivery of F-16s and other Western weapons as a critical and unacceptable ‘red line,'” writes the Pravda.
Ukraine has some catching up to do: 150 machines are needed for effective use
Markus Reisner speaks of up to 150 aircraft that would have to try to regain air sovereignty over Ukraine in a rotation process; initially up to 65 are planned. Only a handful have arrived. In any case, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is already worried about even the few aircraft: “In the course of the fighting, our soldiers will not find out whether every single aircraft of this type is equipped to transport nuclear weapons or not,” he told the media lenta.ruas the Russian news agency Cup reported. “We will consider the mere fact that the Ukrainian armed forces have such systems as a threat from the West in the nuclear field.”
“Any measure that has the potential to end this terrible war is definitely a measure that should be given a chance.”
Ultimately, the weapons used are the decisive factor, says Reisner – he sees Ukraine’s great opportunity in them. The F-16 is merely the carrier system, i.e. the platform for this ammunition. But even that is probably secondary, the Austrian suspects. He has repeatedly complained that the war in Ukraine lacks something like an “ATACMS effect”, as he puts it, i.e. a series of spectacular strikes, for example in ammunition depots or similar, in order to hit Russia frequently, hard and effectively in its logistics.
In contrast, Ukraine has apparently tried to neutralize batteries of long-range S-300 or S-400 air defense missiles – ultimately to give the F-16s elbow room in the air in a reasonably safe airspace; in order to then act against Iskander positions or incoming cruise missiles – “this should give the F-16s a high chance of survival,” says Reisner in the ZDF“The aircraft itself is worthless without the weapons,” stressed Major General Rolf Folland in the Wall Street Journal (WSJ).
Ukraine has goals: fly to the border and shoot from there
The head of the Royal Norwegian Air Force therefore considers the size of Ukraine’s opportunity with the F-16 to be directly dependent on the generosity and military foresight of the NATO states. According to the WSJ The initial equipment for the F-16 by the USA includes AGM-88 HARM air-to-surface missiles – these are versions of Joint Direct Attack Munition kits (JDAM) with an improved range that convert unguided and thus merely falling bombs into intelligent weapons that glide towards a target. In addition, standard free-fall bombs with a limited explosion radius will be delivered – or have already been delivered.
In addition, the WSJ with the delivery of modern medium-range air-to-air missiles, known as AMRAAM (Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile), and short-range air-to-air missiles AIM-9X. Ukraine wants to use these missiles to fly to the border and shoot at Russia, writes the Journal. However, given the threat posed by Russian surface-to-air missiles, this tactic is not realistic in the current situation, he said to the WSJ an anonymous US source. In contrast to the statements of the Austrian Reisner, US officials seem to see the weapon as most effective in close air support, as the WSJ reported.
Putin has an ace up his sleeve: his air defense lets the F-16 approach calmly
This would mean combating ground attacks by the occupying army – for example in the Kharkiv area, where fierce fighting continues and the Ukrainians practically have their backs to the wall; air strikes could therefore possibly even give the defenders the initiative back. This is where the obvious disagreement in the assessment of the use of weapons between the USA and its western NATO partners lies. “Europeans, on the other hand, believe that the F-16s can be used for air defense and may help push Moscow’s air force further away from the front line, where its planes drop thousands of so-called glide bombs every month with devastating effect,” writes the journal.
Also in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung Scholars are currently arguing about this: “If the Russians have one thing, it is good air defense systems,” says FAZ for example Kelly Grieco. The military analyst at the Henry L. Stimson Center think tank criticizes the outdated technical status of the delivered machines – in particular the lack of stealth technology. “The ‘feasibility and effectiveness’ of F-16 missions reaches its limits in offensive operations,” she quotes the FAZ
Russia remains adamant: The F-16 is intended to accelerate the attrition effect
However, officer and military historian Markus Reisner describes the Russian doggedness as seemingly limitless, in which he ZDF made it clear that there seems to be no sign of the long-awaited attrition effect of one of the warring parties involved. In this context, Reisner referred to studies by the British think tank Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), according to which there are currently around 650,000 Russian soldiers at the front, compared to the fewer than 190,000 Russians who invaded Ukraine. Despite all the setbacks and losses, Russia is now also consolidated in the fighting.
According to the US Air & Space Forces Magazine The jets presented by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky were actually equipped with radar-guided medium-range air-to-air missiles of the AIM-120 AMRAAM type and infrared short-range air-to-air missiles of the AIM-9 Sidewinder type. Assumptions about the level of equipment had therefore been confirmed.
Putin, Zelensky and the West in a standoff: How much escalation will be allowed?
The capabilities of these weapons varied depending on the variant, explains Air & Space ForcesThe jets in Ukraine apparently carry the AIM-9 model: “Compared to the oldest Sidewinder, they can target their target from larger angles – so-called off-boresight capability” – these missiles are therefore able to detect targets off the longitudinal axis, their seeker has a larger swivel angle. “The US Air Force, however, has switched to the new, advanced AIM-9X, which has lock-after-launch, better maneuverability and improved countermeasures” – i.e. targeting a target only after firing, as Air & Space Forces writes.
According to the magazine, many of the weapons have already been delivered to Ukraine and initially mounted on the MiG and Sukhoi aircraft in Ukraine. However, the question remains as to how far into Russian territory the Western aircraft can operate in order not to provoke the Russians unduly. US President Joe Biden has extracted a promise from President Volodymyr Selenskyj that the F-16 will not be used for attacks on enemy territory under any circumstances – this had been the The New Zurich Times already reported last year.
The supporter states always see the range of Western weapons in relation to the shortness of the fuse in Moscow. “This decision is probably difficult for our partners, as they always fear an unnecessary escalation,” said Selenskyj when presenting the machines, as Air Force writes.
No matter how the F-16 would be used or what military measures would force the parties into peace negotiations, the Austrian Colonel Reisner advised in ZDF to wait and see, or as he said: “Any measure that has the potential to end this terrible war is definitely a measure that should be given a chance.”
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