Tuesday, October 8, 2024, 9:41 p.m.
Barely a week after giving his general policy speech, French Prime Minister Michel Barnier faced the first motion of censure of his mandate on Tuesday. The left-wing coalition of the New Popular Front (NFP) presented this initiative in response to the decision of the new Executive not to submit to the traditional investiture vote – in the case of France it is not mandatory. Although there was no suspense, it was already known from the beginning that it would not go ahead, this vote reflected one of the keys at the start of this legislature: the role of referee of the far-right National Rally (RN, for its acronym in French).
After the early elections on July 7, Marine Le Pen’s party and its allies represent the third bloc in Parliament with 141 seats. Although the cordon sanitaire of the electorate of the left and the center left him without the victory that the polls predicted, Lepenism currently has a virtual monopoly on the red button of the continuity of Barnier, who composed a cabinet with ministers similar to the president Emmanuel Macron and the traditional right of The Republicans (LR). This was reflected in the vote this Tuesday afternoon. The left’s motion of censure was rejected with 197 votes in favor and falling below the absolute majority threshold (289).
Barnier’s “lesser evil”
“Barnier is a lesser evil compared to (Lucie) Castets – the candidate proposed by the left during the summer,” said Guillaume Bigot to justify the negative vote of the far right. However, this RN representative warned that “we will later censure this Government in the event that it violates the interests of France and the French.” If the extreme right deputies had voted in favor of the motion, the government team would have fallen less than 20 days after its formation.
Unlike in Spain, support for a motion of censure does not mean in France support for an alternative Executive of those who present the text. This facilitates unnatural alliances. This was what happened during the previous legislature when the extreme right voted for several left-wing motions. This scenario, however, is not of interest to Le Pen’s party at the moment, because it wants to embody a “constructive” opposition. Furthermore, he knows that elections cannot be called until the summer of next year.
“Democratic subversion”
On the other hand, the left is betting on a frontal opposition, even more so considering that it considers that it was deprived of the possibility of trying to form a Government after its narrow victory with 193 deputies (out of a total of 577). “You cannot ignore the violence of this democratic subversion,” said Olivier Faure, general secretary of the Socialist Party, in charge of presenting the censorship text in the chamber. “The votes on this motion will demonstrate the political agreement between Macron and Le Pen,” added Cyrielle Chatelain, president of the Green parliamentary group, during the debate.
Barnier defended himself with the argument that the alliance between the Macronists and LR represents the least minority bloc in a very fragmented National Assembly. «No one has the majority. But among the relative majorities I see that the least relative one is the one that supports me,” said the former European Brexit negotiator.
It is true that their support totals a slightly higher number of deputies than that of the left (212 to 193). But it is also true that they are very far from the absolute majority and that they depend on an extreme right that Macron accused of leading the country towards a “civil war” during the campaign.
The prime minister was saved this time, but he could face a similar threat again in a few weeks. In fact, Barnier contemplates moving forward with a controversial decree, and without a vote in the Assembly, the 2025 Budget, whose draft includes a cut of 40,000 million euros in public spending.
The left will probably respond with another motion. As already happened in the previous legislature – between 2022 and 2024, around thirty censorship texts were presented -, these types of initiatives are on their way to becoming the groundhog’s tale of French parliamentary life. With the difference this time of the greater fragility of the Executive. And that all groups take seriously the possibility of it falling.
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