The two large center-right parties, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, and Sinn Féin, the nationalist party furthest to the left, are almost tied in the Irish elections this Friday, according to the exit poll at the close of the electoral colleges. With this scenario, it is expected that the two main center-right parties will once again form a new coalition with the support of some smaller group.
According to the data of the exit poll by Ipsos for the Irish public broadcaster RTE, the newspaper Irish Times and other media, Sinn Féin and Fine Gael, of the current Prime Minister Simon Harris, will get around 20% of the votes and Fianna Fáil will be around 19%.
Sinn Féin, the nationalist party furthest to the left, could even come first in percentage of votes, something unexpected due to several internal scandals that have affected the leadership of Mary Lou McDonald in recent weeks. In the 2020 elections, Sinn Féin won for the first time in number of votes (although not in number of seats and did not have a sufficient parliamentary majority to govern). The exit poll also indicates, in any case, that it will not be the party with the most seats due to the distribution of its votes according to the local electoral system in which voters order the candidates by preference.
Fianna Fáil is the nationalist party that has governed the longest since Irish independence and, with this estimate of results, is expected to remain in power after coalition negotiations.
Long scrutiny
The final result of the elections is not expected until Sunday night or Monday morning given the complexity of the Irish voting system which lengthens the counting, which does not begin until this Saturday morning.
The Irish vote in each district with the so-called “single transferable vote”. This means that the voter chooses candidates in order of preference in districts where between three and five deputies are elected. To win a seat, a candidate must meet a threshold that varies according to a formula in each district. The counting is done in several rounds: first the main preferences are counted, and if a candidate exceeds the threshold, the rest of their votes are redistributed according to the other preferences indicated by the voter. If no candidate reaches the threshold, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated, and his or her votes are transferred to the others. This process is repeated until all seats are assigned with the idea of minimizing the “waste” of votes. But with so many rounds, the final result of the elections takes several days to be known. This year, in addition, there were up to twenty candidates in each district due to the multiplication of the so-called independent parties on the left and right (including the extremes).
The coalition
With weeks of negotiations remaining, the most likely coalition is that of the large center-right parties with some nuances. “Whether they will have the support of the Greens or is different. There may be different support, let’s say external from a smaller party that comes here or it may be a group of independents,” Michele Crepaz, a political scientist at Queen’s University in Belfast, in Northern Ireland, explains to elDiario.es. creator of an exhaustive database on public policies throughout the island. “They will have to be moderate independents. “We’re not talking about those who are more on the extreme end of the political spectrum.”
Those that have achieved the best results are the Green Party, the Labor Party and the Social Democrats, according to the exit poll. All three are possible government partners of the two major center-right parties.
Ireland already has several parties that can be described as far-right due to their immigration policy and their inspiration – even direct slogans – from Donald Trump, but none has consolidated around a leader.
Liz Carolan, a journalist specializing in politics and technology, explains to elDiario.es that some of these far-right candidates began their careers as “influencers” so “their campaigns are an extension of their existing online presence”, often based on videos of confrontations with politicians or related to migrants.
Rich country and Trump risk
Ireland is now one of the richest countries in Europe, among other things due to the presence of multinationals from the United States and other places that have settled there because of the language and lower taxes.
But the most debated challenge among the major parties is how to now manage the risk that part of that business is in danger if the new Trump Administration imposes more obstacles to trade.
In a country of just over five million inhabitants, there are almost 1,000 United States companies that employ almost 400,000 people in Ireland and leave the country around 41 billion euros each year, according to data from the Chamber of Commerce. Crepaz, the political scientist, underlines the message now from Irish politicians: “If Trump closes the door to trade, then we have a problem and we must take it into account.”
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