The entry of a polar mass and another arctic mass will cause a long-lasting and extensive cold episode in Spain

The days before and after the last big event of Christmas, the Three Wise Men, will be marked by an intense drop in temperatures in two phases. To begin with, on Thursday and Friday, a very active front, added to the emergence of a maritime polar air mass – which does not mean that it comes from the Pole, but from higher latitudes than those of Spain and loaded with humidity -, They are going to sweep the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands, leaving in their wake rains, snowfalls and a sharp drop in temperature. And over the weekend there will be a new and sharp drop in thermometers, more intense the further north, due to the entry of another mass of cold Arctic air, that is, this time it does arrive from the Pole. Are we facing the first cold wave of winter? At the moment, the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) does not take a position because it is not clear that the thresholds of extension, duration and intensity necessary to decree, a priori, a cold wave.

For it to be so, it would have to be an episode of at least three days in which, at least, 10% of the stations register minimums between 5% of the coldest in the months of January and February. In the opinion of veteran meteorologist Francisco Martín, coordinator of the specialized magazine RAMit's going to be about “a long-lasting cold episode“, because it will cover from the 6th to the 11th or even more, and also very extensive, because it will affect practically the entire Peninsula, but it will not be so intense as to be considered a cold wave.” “The intensity criterion is missing, which is at the limit,” emphasizes this expert, who makes three days I did see the possibility more clearly of a cold wave, but meteorological models have been reducing it. “In principle it was going to be a powerful wave of Siberian cold, a train coming from Russia, Siberia and Scandinavia, but it has remained a small express, a Cercanías train.”

“There will be two eruptions of cold air, one of a maritime type, with precipitation, significant snowfall, wind and a sharp drop in temperatures between days 4 and 5. And, starting on the 6th and until at least the 11th, there will be another eruption, this one more marked and with cold, relatively dry continental air, which will leave snowfall, especially in the northern third, especially on the northern face of the Pyrenees and the Cantabrian Sea,” explains Martín, for whom “the problem is “It's going to be the wind, which is going to produce a very cold thermal sensation.”

This is the forecast for Wednesday to Sunday, according to Aemet's special prediction for the holidays:

This Wednesday the 3rd, a cold front, which already entered Galicia on Tuesday, will head towards the southeast, which will leave rain in a good part of the interior of the peninsula that will move towards the south, but will not reach the Mediterranean area. It will snow in the Pyrenees from 1,800 meters.

“Minimum rises are expected, except in the northwest third, with the frosts losing extension, and maximums with slight rises in the center, the Ebro valley and the Mediterranean coast,” the note details. Thermometers will reach 23° on the Mediterranean coast and the Canary Islands. In this archipelago, there will be light rains in La Palma and El Hierro.

On Thursday the 4th, “the unpleasant and wintery weather will continue throughout the Peninsula,” says Cayetano Torres, spokesperson for Aemet. The front from the previous day will continue to leave rainfall in the morning “in the southern half of the peninsula, more intense in western Andalusia and less likely in the extreme southeast.” Furthermore, in the afternoon there will be “the entry of a new cold front in the northwest, accompanied by an irruption of polar air,” which will result in rain in the northwestern third.

The rainfall will extend on Friday the 5th, Epiphany Eve, to the rest of the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands, so many parades will be watered down and you will have to go to see them well protected. “The front will cross from west to east over the eastern half of the peninsula, with abundant cloudiness and precipitation to the east of the area, including the Balearic Islands. The rains would continue in mountainous areas but will cease in flat areas and will be more intense in the Balearic Islands at the end of the day. Galicia and the Cantabrian Sea will have intense rainfall and there will be the possibility of storms in the Strait, the Balearic Islands and the eastern Cantabrian Sea. In the Canary Islands, good weather and the occasional shower in the north of the islands,” describes Torres.

The snow level on the 4th will be between 1,400 and 1,600 meters and on the 5th it will drop to 800-1,000, although this decrease will be accompanied by a reduction in rain. “There will be significant snowfall in mountain areas and high areas of the plateau on the 4th and 5th, more snow in the central and Iberian systems,” notes Martín.

Both days, temperatures will fall, except for the minimums in the southern third on Thursday. The collapse, Aemet details, will be “more intense and widespread on Friday, mainly in the southern and southern Iberian plateau.” Again, frost will occur in large areas. In addition, on Friday “very strong gusts of wind are expected in the lower Ebro, southeast of Ibérica and northwest of Almería.” In the Canary Islands, “weak rains are not ruled out on La Palma on Thursday, which could extend to the rest of the more mountainous islands on Friday.”

On Saturday the 6th and Sunday the 7th, “a powerful ridge is expected in the west of the British Isles and a storm in the Mediterranean Sea, near Genoa,” says Martín. This atmospheric pattern, explains Aemet, will favor the “progressive entry of an Arctic air mass through the north of the peninsula that will lead to a new drop in temperatures on both days.” Thus, the weather on Three Kings Day “will be cold, but more stable except for the Cantabrian coast,” Torres summarizes.

The frosts would cover “a good part of the interior of the peninsula, with less probability in the Ebro, Guadiana and Guadalquivir valleys.” The rains “will probably be limited to Galicia, the Cantabrian Sea and the northeast of the Balearic Islands, with a snow level of 800 meters in the north and 1,000 on the islands.” Sunday will be “more stable, but very cold.” The wind will intensify, with “very strong gusts in the Pyrenees, under the Ebro and southeast of the Iberian system.” In the Canary Islands, there will be a slight chance of light rain in the western islands.