The polls predict that the conservative bloc commanded by the leader of the Brothers of Italy would obtain 46% in the elections on September 25
Although it will not be until August 26 when the posters will be posted with which the campaign officially begins, the Italian political parties are already committed to the general elections that will be held on September 25. If what the polls predict is true, the elections will be won by the conservative bloc headed by the Brothers of Italy (HdI), the far-right political force led by Giorgia Meloni. A member of Vox in the European Parliament, Meloni has taken advantage of her decision not to enter the broad coalition that has supported the Mario Draghi government for the last year and a half, thus remaining the only opposition voice.
Instead, the League of Matteo Salvini and Forza Italia (FI), the party of Silvio Berlusconi, formed part of the government alliance, which have seen how HdI ate up the ground until they already touched 23% in voting intentions. The internal competition between the right largely explains why the League and Forza Italia chose to blow up this week, together with the 5-Star Movement (M5E), the Draghi Executive, which remains in office until the formation of the new Government.
According to the latest polls, the conservative bloc, formed by HdI, the League and FI, would obtain 46% of the ballots, while the Democratic Party and its left-wing allies would obtain almost 30%. The M5E would narrowly reach 10%, thus confirming its historic debacle, as it won the previous elections, held in 2018, with 32% of the vote. It is also feared that there will be a high rate of abstention due to the exhaustion generated by the fall of the Government, the development of the campaign during the summer and the lack of mobilization of the M5E electorate.
“Meloni is more afraid of becoming prime minister than the left itself that does it,” says Mattia Diletti, professor of Political Science at La Sapienza University in Rome, ironically, explaining the vertigo that the leader of Brothers of Italy for finding themselves before the political opportunity of a lifetime. «She knows that in Italy leadership lasts very little. They burn out very quickly and she is aware that she does not have the right people to govern ». Diletti recalls what happened to the germ party of HdI when it took over the mayoralty of Rome in 2008 thanks to its candidate, Gianni Alemanno: «He tried to present himself as a modern and acceptable alderman, but ended up calling to his side characters from the extreme right that they were unpresentable ».
“The power tames”
That risk of the most extreme wing of HdI emerging, a political force that seduces those nostalgic for fascism, will surely be one of the arguments used by the left during the electoral campaign. However, the professor of Political Science at La Sapienza University in Rome believes that even if the conservative bloc ends up winning the elections and is led by Meloni’s party, Italy’s placement within the European Union and NATO is not in danger.
“The power tames”, he affirms, venturing that the head of the list of Brothers of Italy “will place American flags everywhere” and will make “a profession of faith towards Europe”. The experience of the first Government of this legislature, formed by the M5E and the League, also invites the alarms not to go off. Those two parties then flirted with the idea of taking Italy out of the euro zone and even tried to put an economist openly opposed to the single currency as Minister of Economy, but they ran into the filter of the President of the Republic, Sergio Mattarella. Surely the role of the Head of State will be equally crucial in the formation of the next Executive and he will have no qualms about using his veto right with those ministers who may pose a threat to the country’s international alliances.
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