Washington. Two climate giants, one natural and one man-made, will clash this summer to determine how calm or chaotic the Atlantic Ocean hurricane season will be.
A natural weather phenomenon, El Niño, is brewing, drastically reducing hurricane activity, but at the same time record ocean heat is accumulating in the Atlantic, fueled in part by man-made climate change from burning coal, oil and gas and provides fuel for storms.
Many meteorologists aren’t sure which weather titan will prevail, because a scenario of this magnitude has never happened before. Most of them predict a draw, something close to the annual average. And that includes the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which noted that there is a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, a 30 percent chance of a above-average season (more storms than usual) and a 30 percent chance of a below-normal season.
The federal agency announced Thursday its forecast of between 12 and 17 named storms, of which between five and nine will become hurricanes and between one and four will become Category 3 or greater hurricanes with winds greater than 177 kilometers per hour. (110 miles per hour). The normal forecast is for 14 named storms, seven of which will become hurricanes and three of which will become Category 3 or higher hurricanes.
“It’s definitely a rare setup for this year. So our chances are not 60 percent or 70 percent,” NOAA’s lead seasonal hurricane forecaster Matthew Rosencrans told a news conference Thursday. “There is a lot of uncertainty this year,” he added.
Regardless of the number of storms ahead, meteorologists and Federal Emergency Management Agency Director Deanne Criswell reminded coastal residents of the United States, from Texas to New England, and residents of the Caribbean and Central America, that it only takes a hurricane to hit your area for it to be a catastrophe.
“That’s what it really comes down to: Which one is going to win, or do they cancel each other out and you end up with a pretty much normal season?” said Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach. “I respect both of them,” he added.
The two forces could not be more opposite.
El Niño is a natural temporary warming of the Pacific Ocean that occurs every few years and changes the climate around the world. Climate models predict that as the world warms, El Niño will become stronger.
Decades of observation show that the Atlantic is generally calmer and less stormy during El Niño years. Warmer El Niño waters push warmer Pacific air higher into the atmosphere, influencing winds and creating strong upper-level winds that can decapitate storms, killing them, Klotzbach added. It is what is called wind shear
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