Although the full implications of the assault on Brazil’s Congress on January 8 remain to be seen, we can already trace some of its immediate effects. First of all, it is undeniable that Bolsonarismo harmed itself.
Even if the attacks on government buildings were spontaneous, they revealed the inability of the governor of the Federal District, Ibaneis Rocha (a Bolsonaro ally), to provide basic public security. And if they were premeditated, they show a total immaturity on the part of those who planned them.
Does Bolsonaro seek to lead the opposition against President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva from the Brazilian political institutions or does he seek to lead a street opposition movement?
Be that as it may, the image of Bolsonarismo was even more stained. Future peaceful demonstrations will be closely monitored, and other top politicians who previously sided with Bolsonaro are likely not to want leadership positions in the official opposition. Does Bolsonaro seek to lead the opposition against President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva from the Brazilian political institutions or does he seek to lead a street opposition movement?
You cannot be right with God and with the devil. To lead the formal opposition, Bolsonaro will have to condemn the insurrection unambiguously; but if he sides with the seditious, he will strengthen Lula’s position vis-à-vis Congress. After all, on January 8 he rallied many government and opposition parliamentarians, and Lula will seek to erode the support of center-right politicians who are questioning his ties to the former president.
Lula’s government has promised a thorough investigation of the insurrection, which will include its financing and planning. Hundreds of people were arrested and will be brought to trial. A pressing question is the answer that the informal opposition will offer in the streets now that magistrate Alexandre de Moraes temporarily replaced Ibaneis Rocha, governor of the Federal District (suspended for 90 days). Could Bolsonaro’s allies leading other states meet a similar fate?
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Much will depend on what Lula, defense minister José Múcio and justice minister Flávio Dino do in the coming days. If they let outrage guide them, they risk strengthening the opposition in the streets. They must decide whether to focus on the acts that broke the law; if they seek to attack their enemies more broadly, they will only perpetuate the pattern of polarization and further trivialize terms like “fascist” and “communist.”
But if the government ensures that those who commit criminal acts are held accountable, it can reinforce the message that attacks on democratic institutions, regardless of whether they come from the left or the right, they will quickly confront the rule of law.
In broader terms, January 8 shows us what can happen when democracy is understood as a mere process and not as a central value. Now that Bolsonarismo has discredited itself, Brazilian democracy is not in immediate jeopardy, but that could change quickly if Brazilians do not develop an appreciation for the motives and ways in which the procedures of democracy work.
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Executive Director of Public Affairs at Arko Advice.
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