If a lockdown is introduced in Russia due to the wave of the omicron strain of the coronavirus, of course, this will have an impact on the country’s economy. But the effect will not only be negative, says ex-adviser to the Minister of Economic Development Yevgeny Nadorshin. He told about this to “Lente.ru”.
Impact on inflation
Nadorshin suggested that the lockdown could become a deterrent to inflation.
“We saw the same thing in the spring of 2020. Lockdown is a measure that can have a more powerful impact than all the actions already taken by our Central Bank, ”said the economist.
In addition, he called a full-fledged lockdown extremely unlikely. Nadorshin suggested that the authorities, most likely, would only agree to toughen existing measures, since the omicron is not as dangerous as the delta strain.
“The main advantage of the omicron-strain is that it is less lethal, with deaths occurring much less frequently. This is one of the reasons why I do not believe in the introduction of a full-fledged lockdown, ”Nadorshin said.
Severity of Business Impact
“I don’t think the lockdown will hit our economy particularly hard. Most likely, the authorities will nevertheless gather courage and introduce covid certificates, limit mobility in medium and long-distance directions. It is clear that some restrictions can be expanded, but now the main problem in terms of anti-epidemic measures is their compliance. Half of the people in transport travel without masks, they just do not care, and this rule has been in effect for a year and a half. Therefore, it is possible that a decision will simply be made to toughen the punishment for non-compliance with these measures, ”the economist admitted.
Related materials:
Nadorshin believes that even the introduction of tougher restrictions should not bring serious losses to the Russian economy. He explained that almost all businesses have already adapted to doing business in the new conditions, and many of those who were hit particularly hard by the changes have already closed down.
So, of course, there will be sacrifices, but not huge ones. In addition, small and medium-sized businesses play a rather modest role in our economy. The crises of the last, still dock-like years have only reduced their share
Evgeny Nadorshinex-adviser to the Minister of Economic Development
“There are certain activities that feel good. But they are often associated with very large businesses that optimize taxes, which brightens up the perception at the statistical level. So, in general, maintaining restrictions, tightening them, introducing covid certificates will not cause significant damage. Even if quantitatively there are many victims, in monetary terms the losses will turn out to be much more modest than in 2020, ”the economist said.
“Growth is slowing down fast”
However, Russia does not live in a vacuum. What is happening in other states has a significant impact on its economy, in many of which the omicron strain has already infected a significant part of the population.
“Of course, the current situation with the coronavirus in the world does not bring us any positive. The more actively the number of infections grows, the more they will begin to load the healthcare system, again directing additional resources there. And this, in turn, will mean a general slowdown in economic growth. Especially considering that in the current phase, the Central Bank will adhere to a restrained approach aimed at curtailing support measures, and not at stimulating, “Nadorshin said.
This, he said, will happen not only in Russia, but all over the world. In view of this, one should expect a moderate slowdown in the growth rates of the world economy, a decrease in raw materials prices, and, as a result, negative for the domestic raw materials sectors and industries associated with them.
Already last year, it was very clearly seen from the operational statistics that growth in Russia was slowing down very quickly. After a sharp jump in the second quarter, by the fourth quarter it amounted to only about three percent, despite a very comfortable market environment.
Evgeny Nadorshinex-adviser to the Minister of Economic Development
“That is, everything was not very good with us even without shocks. The omicron is quite capable of reducing the modest average growth forecast for this year to near-zero values, ”the economist concluded.
#economist #consequences #introduction #lockdown #Russia