05/06/2024 – 6:28
A sudden change of political direction in the next European elections could call into question the difficult and costly transition to electric cars.
The European Union took the historic decision in 2022 to ban cars with combustion engines in 2035.
This means leaving the entire market for cars with electric batteries or those that run on hydrogen, to eliminate this source of CO2 generation, at 15% of the total in the EU.
– Cost of mobility –
For its critics, this regulation puts the European industry, a leader in combustion engines, at risk in the face of imports from China, which has become a leader in electric vehicles. It also limits drivers’ access to new vehicles, as electric models continue to be much more expensive.
The cancellation of the 2035 deadline has become an essential topic on the political agenda of far-right parties.
The CRE group, which includes Fratelli d’Italia and Vox from Spain, insists on its program that “the combustion engine is a testament to European creativity” and should continue to be “viable for many more years”, with new investments in research , especially on “low emission” fuels.
Another far-right group, Identity and Democracy – National Regroupment (RN) in France, Alternative for Germany (AfD), League in Italy – also fights what it describes as a “discriminatory and social exclusion measure”.
Criticism also comes from the majority party at the end of its mandate, the European People’s Party (EPP).
The German coalition parties, CDU and CSU, would like to cancel the year 2035 so that consumers can continue to benefit from “German cutting-edge combustion engine technology”.
But, at European level, where it appears as a favorite in the polls, the PPE did not include this cancellation in its program.
Party list leader Ursula von der Leyen was the one who managed to impose this ban under the European “Green Deal”, an ambitious legislative package that should allow the EU to achieve its climate goals.
“It would be surprising if the Commission that implemented the Green Pact went into reverse, but there are risks regarding its implementation”, comments Diane Strauss, from the NGO Transport & Environment.
The automotive industry, which represents more than 12 million jobs in Europe, has already begun the shift to electric vehicles.
After years of struggle, the manufacturers’ lobby in Brussels, ACEA, guarantees that it will respect the European Green Pact.
The launches of 100% electric cars are multiplying and their market share has increased considerably, although it has decreased slightly since the end of 2023.
Manufacturers are already required to reduce emissions from their vehicles today, under penalty of heavy fines.
But an additional deadline would be welcome, said the president of ACEA and executive director of Renault, Luca de Meo, in February.
“I hope the ban comes into force a little later, because I don’t think we will be able to do it without damaging the entire industry and the entire European automobile production chain,” he told AFP.
The European number two in the sector, Stellantis, is “very attentive to the results of the elections in the United States and Europe”, highlighted its general director, Carlos Tavares, at the end of January.
Tavares outlined two scenarios: an “acceleration of electric cars” if the “dogmatic progressives” win, or a “setback of electric cars” if the “populists” win.
According to Diane Strauss, the success of the ban in 2035 depends on several factors, such as the implementation of the network of electric charging stations or the reduction in the price of cars, for example, through “European leasing”.
“A Parliament very opposed to electromobility could delay the implementation of all the factors necessary for the success of this project”, he points out.
A “review clause” is already planned in 2026, to carry out a first assessment of electrification.
It does not imply a new vote on the deadline, but it could reinforce adjustments, some of which have already been outlined.
In 2023, Germany’s Transport Minister, the liberal Volker Wissing, threatened to make the 2035 deadline fail, demanding an exception for “emissions-neutral fuels”.
These synthetic fuels, which are still very energetic and expensive, should be reserved primarily for aviation, but manufacturers such as Porsche, Stellantis and Renault are also exploring them for automobiles.
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