Excess mortality during the omicron wave in Russia will not be as great as at the peak values of the delta strain wave. Demographer Alexei Raksha shared this opinion in an interview with Lente.ru. He predicted that excess omicron deaths would begin to fall by the end of February.
Excess mortality is a temporary increase in the level of mortality in a population compared to what is expected. As a rule, an increase in this parameter is associated with some external causes – catastrophes, wars and epidemics.
I do not predict the same terrible mortality that we had at the peak of the delta wave at the end of October, when more than 4100 people died daily. I think that among those infected, the lethality will be ten times less compared to the delta
Alexey Rakshademographer
At the moment, the level of excess deaths is approximately 1-1.2 thousand people per day, which is the lowest value since June 2021.
“I predict that a new wave of omicrons could lead to an increase in mortality, but I do not expect more than 3,000 excess deaths per day. Most likely, there will be fewer of them, about 2000,” he said.
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Raksha also referred to statistics from South Africa, according to which mortality during the omicron wave was lower in those regions where there was a very high excess mortality during the delta strain wave.
“This means that Russia’s prospects are not so bad. And from the end of February, the death rate will decline,” the demographer summed up.
According to Raksha, the lethality of omicron will be approximately 0.1-0.2 percent of the total number of those infected.
Earlier, the chief freelance cardiologist of the Ministry of Health, Sergey Boytsov, said that patients with previously diagnosed cardiovascular diseases played a significant role in the increase in excess deaths from coronavirus. According to him, the increase in mortality among the “cores” in some regions of the world amounted to 30 percent.
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