The comments of numerous journalists agreed that the day was marked by tradition and, at the same time, by the symbolism that times of change are coming. This could be summed up what happened on Friday in Chile, on the occasion of the possession of Gabriel Boric as the new president of the southern country, who at just turned 36 is not only the youngest president in the history of that country, but in the world today.
(In context: Gabriel Boric assumes the presidency of Chile, with a promise of profound change)
Beyond the fact that the program was carried out as planned, beginning with the oath, the imposition of the tricolor band and the delivery of the O’Higgins piocha – a five-pointed star that represents power – by his predecessor, the new president broke the protocol on more than one occasion. And not just because of his refusal to wear a tie.
In addition to getting off the convertible Ford Galaxie that was taking him through the streets of Valparaíso to greet the people of the city where the headquarters of the Congress is located, already in Santiago and on foot he left the red carpet that was taking him to the Palace of the Moneda, to go to greet the statue of Salvador Allende, who died in the coup of September 11, 1973.
(Read: Gabriel Boric: who is the new elected president of Chile?)
The generational change was evident, along with the message of inclusion by taking possession of a cabinet with a female majority or the choice, for the first time in history, of a female presidential aide, Police Lieutenant Colonel Cecilia Navarro. There are ministers with gray hair, but they are the minority in a team whose origins must be found in the student mobilizations of the past decade.
The above are just a few examples of what the arrival of a government very different from all the previous ones means. Just twelve months ago, very few believed that this young deputy, born near Antarctica, would replace Sebastián Piñera, whose administration was marked by the pandemic and the 2019 protests that shook the nation with the highest average income level in Latin America. .
(Also: What are the main challenges facing Gabriel Boric in Chile?)
There is no doubt that the marches, together with the vandalism and the clashes with the police forces, put an end to the image of social harmony that seemed to predominate after the return to democracy in 1990, after 27 years of military dictatorship. Nevertheless the rapid growth experienced and a substantial reduction in poverty over the past decades, the dissatisfaction of an important part of the 19 million Chileans who took to the streets was clear.
More than recounting what happened, suffice it to say that the explosion generated two processes. The first, the convening of a Constitutional Assembly that must deliver a new text of the political letter within a few weeks. And the second was the election of Boric, who in the second round in December defeated his right-wing rival by a wide margin, after winning the votes of the center.
Pending tasks
There is no doubt that the victory on that occasion ended up being the result of a much more moderate rhetoric. That same tone was used by the newly sworn president on Friday, before a crowd that filled the Plaza de la Constitución in the capital to hear the inaugural speech.
More than specific purposes, the message was full of calls for unity and reconciliation. “Let’s walk the path of hope together and let’s all build change towards a country that is worthy and fair,” said Boric, after warning that “as Chileans we have to meet again.”
Such messages went down well with public opinion, but there is no doubt that the practical challenge of turning promises into realities begins tomorrow. In addition, there are the issues that do not wait and that will test the mettle of the Executive.
This is what happens with the drafting of the Constitution, which, apart from symbolizing the break with the Pinochet era, worries many. The reason is that the Assembly is dominated by the independents and the left, which can end up radically changing the rules of the game that have been in force until now.
The new administration can make a difference in a disillusioned Latin America
of politics and its leaders, especially if it succeeds in showing that democracy can correct course.
Some of the proposals coming out of the commissions are seen as a refoundation of the State, since they range from regional autonomy to legal pluralism to recognize the systems of indigenous peoples, including the prohibition of private ownership of natural resources. Given that such initiatives require two thirds of the support of the plenary, everything points to extreme ideas failing, but time is running out and the definitive text is far away.
With the latent danger of undesirable surprises appearing, the government will have to keep its guard up. At the end of the day, his only option is to support the referendum that will determine in September whether the new charter is adopted, since it is impossible for him to oppose the process.
Nor will it be easy to manage an indigenous conflict with the Mapuche community, in the south of the territory, or that of the migrants who continue to arrive from the north. One of the complaints of the population is related to the climate of internal security, which demands early results on this front.
(Also: Gustavo Petro spoke of strengthening the Andean Pact together with Gabriel Boric)
As if the above were not enough, the political environment will remain heated. Managing the Communist Party, which is a force supporting the governing coalition, will be another challenge. In such a charged environment, there is no shortage of those who accuse the young president of being “yellow” because of his conciliatory tone, which radical and anarchist sectors dislike.
The forces in both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate are divided, which will make it difficult for the administration to easily get its legislative program out. Having the support of Congress is essential not only for the normative development of the Constitution, but also to carry out reforms in key areas such as education, health and pensions.
The first main course, in any case, will be a tax reform whose eventual objective is to increase collections by the equivalent of five percentage points of gross domestic product, which exceeds the cumulative increase in tax burdens over the last 30 years. Negotiating with the right will be complex and even more so in the present circumstances.
At the head of this effort will be Mario Marcel, who has just left the direction of the Central Bank of Chile and is a respected economist. His appointment as finance minister was a message that reassured the markets, since the signal is that the responsibility in handling fiscal matters will continue to be present. In any case, when he uncovers his cards, the criticism will come because the squeeze will not be of a minor order.
Although copper prices have risen, oil prices have also risen, which is bad for a net importer of fuels, where inflation is skyrocketing. The projections show a mediocre performance of growth, where consumer distrust is on the rise.
looks from outside
The logic of the government program when building a welfare state that would be more similar to the European model is that the accounts give. As Marcel himself pointed out in an interview he gave to the Spanish newspaper El País: “Inequality is not generated only because income is unequal, but because social protection is weak.”
Taking from those who have more to give to those who have less sounds relatively simple, but it is very difficult in practice. Perhaps that is the reason why Boric’s experiment gives rise to so much interest in the most diverse latitudes.
Beyond his youth, or his inexperience, the bottom line is whether he manages to build a fairer system, without scaring away investment or hitting the growth rate. To date, a capital outflow estimated at 50,000 million dollars suggests that many do not believe that this is possible, but the option of continuing with the same climate of tension and polarization of recent times is not attractive either.
The bottom line is the possibility of the emergence of a left that does and lets do, away from radicalism or populism that blow so hard in Latin America. As he did at the time, when he took a step in favor of free competition and opening to foreign markets, “Boric has a rare opportunity to show that Chile can define a global trend, this time by creating a fairer society and green,” according to an editorial in the Financial Times.
All of the above concerns Colombia, not only because of the electoral situation, but also because of the challenges that whoever assumes power will face on August 7. Although the simplistic description is that a friend of Gustavo Petro arrived at the Palacio de la Moneda, who was present as a spatial guest at the inauguration, the underlying issues are different.
To begin with, there is pensions. Although in the campaign the commitment of the current Chilean president was to put an end to the administrators of private funds, people are not at all attracted by the idea that their savings go to public coffers. Hence, there is now talk of a mixed system, underpinned by the recent approval of the Universal Guaranteed Pension that introduces an element of solidarity to the scheme.
Secondly, the issue of the development model based on primary goods arises. The commitment to sustainability does not at all imply an end to extractive activities, such as the exploitation of copper. Rather, the current government is leaning towards the creation of a state company that has a role in the rise of lithium, a mineral that is also key in the energy transition.
Next, health appears. There will be no shortage of people who will be surprised, but the path that many Chileans propose is the one that Colombia adopted with Law 100 of 1993. Far from nationalizing the system, the objective is to involve the private sector and ensure that out-of-pocket spending – which today is equivalent to 35 percent in the southern country – decreases, thanks to an insurance structure similar to the one that operates here.
Finally, it is essential to keep the house in order. One thing is the objective of considerably increasing social spending and another is forgetting to take care of public accounts. In this sense, the signal that each budget use corresponds to its source of income, implies that enforcing rights also requires citizens to fulfill their duties, in this case with the treasury.
The foregoing, together with the firm commitment to respect human rights, has distanced Gabriel Boric from regimes such as that of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela or Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua. Thus, the possibility of a renewal of the discourse of social democracy opens up, which differs substantially from what has been observed in the region in recent times.
No outcome is assured, least of all for a government that is just getting started, in the midst of crosswinds typical of the international and local situation. That the challenges are immense and the difficulties are just around the corner, undeniable.
However, the new Chilean administration can make a difference in a Latin America disillusioned with politics and its leaders, especially if it manages to demonstrate that democracy is capable of correcting the course, putting the common good before the individual. And this, in a world drifting towards authoritarianism, would be no small thing. That is more than enough reason to look south.
RICARDO AVILA PINTO
SPECIAL FOR WEATHER
SENIOR ANALYST
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