On May 9, the world celebrates the fall of the Nazi regime of Adolf Hitler at the hands of the Soviet troops who had reached the heart of Berlin. Since then, the Soviet Union and later Russia took advantage of that date to commemorate what over the years they came to call ‘The Great Patriotic War’.
(Also read: World War II: this was the last message from the German army)
The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, would have wanted this May 9 to be used to celebrate the victory of his troops over the Ukrainian Army, but the reality on the ground is different and Putin will be able to celebrate at best that he has taken the city of Mariupol and strips of the Ukrainian Black Sea coast. For days, Europe has wondered what Putin will do this Monday, which is also Europe Day, the day they decided to use the institutions of the European Union to celebrate the political unity of the continent.
Putin could do two things, which are not incompatible. He could decree the very limited victory of his own and also officially launch a war against Ukraine, because he calls what has happened since February 24 a “special military operation” and even the Russian media are prohibited from using the word ‘war’. May 9 is also an ideal date for Putin to defend his argument that Ukraine is trying to “denazify” the country. Assertion that is contrary to the political reality of Ukraine, a country where the extreme right has barely 2 percent of Parliament and is chaired by a Jew, Volodimir Zelensky.
European diplomacy believes that Putin will want to forget the failure of his military adventure to conquer kyiv, which ended with a humiliating defeat at the hands of a much smaller army and with serious accusations of war crimes against the Russian troops who occupied it for weeks. several towns north of the Ukrainian capital. Russia has also had much higher military losses than expected (more than a dozen generals have died) and suffered the sinking of its flagship in the Black Sea (the Moskva).
European diplomacy considers that Putin will want to forget the failure of his military adventure for the conquest of kyiv, which ended with a humiliating defeat at the hands of a much smaller Army
So this Monday he could proclaim a “victory”. It doesn’t matter if the story is true or false because the Kremlin’s absolute control over the media allows it to tell any story it wants. Troops and weapons will parade through Moscow’s Red Square under the determined gaze of a president who has even made references to nuclear weapons. Thus, Putin could, in the traditional speech he gives on this date, allege that the Russian Armed Forces have already achieved their objectives, despite the fact that his campaign is not advancing and there are more and more attacks on ammunition and fuel depots in his own territory. Putin may claim that he controls Donbas, but on the ground the situation is different and Russian troops have barely advanced and are now facing Ukrainian counter-attacks thanks to weapons supplied by the West.
In Brussels there are diplomats who believe that Putin could even announce the creation of a new political entity (New Russia) in which he would integrate the occupied and unoccupied territories. New Russia is a historical concept that refers to a territory that was part of the Russian Empire in the 18th century and that was where today are the Ukrainian cities of Mariupol, Odessa, Kherson and beyond the Moldovan regions of Transnistria and Gagauzia. Those who defend that Putin could make such a declaration show signs such as the introduction of the ruble as the currency of current use in the occupied zones.
Putin could go another way, which would not be incompatible with the first. He could declare that he achieved only his first objectives and that the war will continue to restore not only the Soviet borders, but those of the former Russian Empire, which included Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Georgia and parts of Romania and Poland. Even just rhetorically there he would already enter into direct confrontation with NATO, an escalation that few believe the Russian president wants right now.
The Russian president may try to take the war further, but the failure to take kyiv and the logistical problems shown by his Armed Forces cause doubts in European diplomacy about the possibility that he can maintain supply lines of hundreds of kilometers no matter how much it occupies the south of the Ukraine, where it would find resistance in cities like Odessa. A Scandinavian diplomat says that among his peers the idea spreads that the Russian Army is already fighting exhausted by the casualties of personnel and material and that it showed disorganization.
The most pessimistic speak of a third world war. And although it does not seem like a rational decision and could lead to Russia’s prostration, the invasion of Ukraine did not seem rational either, and Putin launched it just the same. Those pessimists fear that Putin, in need of a quick and clear military victory as economic sanctions rain down on him, may be tempted to use the nuclear weapon. Unlikely but not impossible.
NATO’s response if Putin were to attack any country in the Atlantic Alliance with conventional means would be an attack on Russia, which, however limited, would open the door to a larger conflict.
IDAFE MARTIN PEREZ
For the time
Brussels, Belgium)
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