The business confederation is sure that the regional GDP will grow this year less than expected
We are witnessing “a summer picture with light and dark and many clouds on the horizon, typical of a scenario of maximum uncertainty.” The quote is from the Economic Situation Bulletin for the second quarter of the year published this Friday by the regional employers’ association Croem, whose analysis of the economic situation leads it to show its concern about an “autumn plagued with complications.”
Despite the fact that the balance for the first half of the year is generally satisfactory, the progressive deterioration recorded by various indicators has cast a shadow over the outlook. The businessmen allude in their report to the war in Ukraine, “which appears entrenched and without possible short-term solutions”, and to its direct consequences, such as the “less availability of certain energy, agricultural and mineral raw materials”.
At the same time, it warns about the persistence of “bottlenecks in certain inputs and dysfunctionalities in the supply chains, with the aggravating factor that the cost of financing will increase due to the rise in rates by the main central banks”, a unsatisfactory scenario that is aggravated by strong inflationary pressures.
Puerto Lumbreras, Bullas and Abarán are the three municipalities that have destroyed the most jobs in the last twelve months
inflationary tensions
The Situation Bulletin does not even mention the word recession, which some politicians and experts are already beginning to predict, but it recognizes that “in the immediate future, bearish forces predominate, which are still beginning to be seen in a moderate way, but which could bring forward an autumn plagued by complications”.
In this context, the regional economy maintained its inertia in the second quarter of 2022 with an annual GDP improvement of 3.1%, a rate similar to that at the beginning of the year, although much lower than the national average growth, which was 6. 3%, and the lowest of all the autonomous communities.
With regard to the outlook for the year as a whole, with the persistence of both the Russian invasion of Ukraine and inflationary pressures, the report indicates that the most likely option is a downward revision of the growth of the regional economy, which could between 3.2% and 4.6% according to the latest available estimates.
Huerta de Murcia, in the lead
Croem also shows how job creation has moderated as the year progressed. The bulletin highlights that in the last twelve months net jobs have been created in all counties except in Vega Alta and Valle de Ricote, with Huerta de Murcia (5,009 jobs), Cartagena-Mar Menor (4,083) and Vega Average (3,310) in the lead.
By municipalities, Murcia stands out, with 4,117 more jobs (+1.8%), Cartagena (2,703; 4.3%), Molina de Segura (2,311; 8.4%), Lorquí (789; 13.9%), Alhama de Murcia (638; 4.5%), Alcantarilla (620; 4.6%), and Águilas (500; 4.4%). On the other hand, in eight of the 45 municipalities that make up the Region, employment was destroyed in the last year, with the worst results being Puerto Lumbreras (-64; -1.3%), Bullas (-111; -3.2%), and Abarán (-117; -2.6%).
The sectoral analysis carried out by Croem highlights the negative figures that, in general, agriculture and livestock have presented in the first half of the year, with the exception of certain species and some litters.
Industrial activity has also slowed down compared to the first quarter, although most branches continue to be positive, and in construction, although housing sales continue to be positive, signs of a slowdown in housing production and the The boom in public works is not enough to counteract the concern about the rise in the prices of raw materials and the difficulties that companies have in transferring them to contracts.
The services sector is the one with the best behavior, since it “consolidates its reactivation in the first half of the year, although at a more contained rate than its national correlative, mainly driven by the recovery of tourism, passenger transport and certain commercial branches », indicates the bulletin.
Croem also includes the increase in the public deficit of the Autonomous Community, which in May stood at 0.85% of GDP, the second worst record in the last ten years, and raised the debt above 11,500 million (35% of GDP, the third highest autonomic rate).
As a consequence of all this, uncertainty has permeated among businessmen, whose confidence has fallen by 1.9%, according to the index prepared by the INE, in which pessimistic assessments begin to prevail both in the second quarter and in the outlook of the third.
Improves the manufacture of furniture and clothing
The Industrial Production Index (IPI) rose 6.4% in the Region in June compared to the same month of 2021, the same percentage as the national average, as reported this Friday by the National Institute of Statistics (INE).
Industrial production increased in fourteen autonomous communities in the interannual rate and decreased in the other three.
The greatest increases occurred in the Balearic Islands (32.9%), Castilla-La Mancha (14.6%) and Aragón (12.5%), while the decreases were registered in La Rioja (-4.7%), Cantabria (-3.4%) and Castilla y León (-2.2%).
The industrial activity that has most influenced the regional evolution of the interannual rate of the IPI was the supply of electricity, gas steam and air conditioning, and oil refining, with an impact of 7,250 points and an increase in its index of 28, 9% in the last twelve months. It is followed by the manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, with 0.400 points and an interannual variation of 21.1%, and the manufacture of furniture, which had an impact of 0.184 points after growing its production by 5.9%.
Other branches of activity with a notable variation in the regional industry, regardless of their weight in the evolution of the general index, were the manufacture of clothing (32.5%) and other extractive industries (26.4%), according to reports the Regional Statistical Center of the Region of Murcia (CREM).
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