Now that Glasgow is approaching, I am often asked what is the secret of the Universal Agreement that I presided over in 2015. My answer is that this success, after a long and intense work of environmental diplomacy, was made possible thanks to the convergence, in Paris, of three planets: science, societies and states.
Since then, science planet has multiplied its advances. Many studies have deepened our knowledge, showing, for example, that 1.5 degrees Celsius has become the limit that must not be exceeded. Investigations are carried out on all fronts and are eliminating barriers. Technology advances, promoting energy savings and greatly reducing the cost of renewable energy compared to energy containing carbon. Important innovations are appearing.
The “planet of societies” has also been present. Faster than we expected in 2015. Non-governmental organizations, cities, regions, universities have mobilized. Public opinion has become more aware of the challenges. Young people, whom it would be absurd to treat arrogantly, show us the way. More and more companies are committed, for various reasons, be they ethical, economic, financial. However, they do it at different rates. Among the producers of fossil fuels, coal, oil and gas, it must be recognized that the confusion between eco-commitments, eco-achievements and eco-whitening has not disappeared – far from it.
As for the States, there are several that have not fulfilled their commitments. The Paris Agreement, which they all signed, clearly provides, in its fourth article, that each country must communicate a “contribution determined at the national level”, which will be revised upwards every five years at least. However, at the same time that I write these lines, numerous state actors, especially the European Union, have communicated a contribution that is in line with the Agreement, while others have presented one in which there is no evidence of improvement, or even that goes backwards, or they have not even communicated it. It would be desirable that the next G20 in Rome and COP26 in Glasgow lead to new commitments in the days to come. The election of Donald Trump as soon as his presidency began, international tensions, the Covid-19 pandemic, the short-termism and nationalism that surround us, the inherent difficulties to carry out the necessary profound mutations are all causes of these breaches, although do not justify them.
In short, if six years later the first two planets are widely present, it is not something that happens with the “planet of States”. The increase in temperatures, which should be established between now and the end of the century below 2ºC and, if possible, below 1.5ºC, is rather on a slope of 2.7ºC, or even higher; a path that the UN Secretary General considers “catastrophic”, and with good reason. Heat waves, mega fires, floods, famines, massive and forced human migrations, the calamitous march of warming reaches everywhere, and first to the most vulnerable territories and people. It affects us all. Not in 10 or 30 years, but today.
Four goals
This is the context in which the Glasgow COP26 begins, which was postponed for a year due to the pandemic. It is about pursuing at least four objectives, in order of increasing difficulties. It is with respect to these objectives that we will be able to evaluate the results.
The first objective is to approve the “implementing regulations” of the Paris Agreement. Its provisions are quite technical but important. The delay in closing this file hampered several advances. Not closing this point or not agreeing on a downward text would be very disappointing.
The second is related to financing. As early as 2009, concrete commitments were made on the occasion of COP15 in Copenhagen. Rich countries pledged to dedicate at least $ 100 billion a year to climate-related public and private finance for developing countries by 2020, and to increase this figure later. To this day, the accounts still do not go out, which penalizes the development of many countries that lack both financing and technology, especially in Africa. It is essential that COP26 move forward on this front, while increasing the portion dedicated to adaptation to global warming. This involves increasing grants versus loans and addressing the issue of “damages”. More generally, the entire banking and financial system needs to be mobilized much more in order to actually stop its support for fossil fuels and to massively develop green investments.
Third, to fill the commitment gap, national climate ambitions should be highlighted and clarified. With regard to CO₂ emissions of course, but also with regard to that very critical gas, methane. Over the past few months, a major breakthrough has been unfolding in which announcements that carbon neutrality is being sought by the middle of the 21st century have multiplied: this is substantial progress. But, on the one hand, it is necessary to implement indisputable indicators, which allow to verify the true changes: transparency is necessary to be able to trust. On the other hand, long-term announcements do not exempt from obtaining commitments that can be verified in the medium (2030) and short term (from COP27 to COP30). It is not clear whether the essential carbon neutrality will be achieved by drastically reducing fossil fuels or by recovering and offsetting emissions. We can only know if the long-term path is relevant and if it is met if these aspects are clarified.
Finally, the Glasgow COP is expected to take into account, verify and expand on several of the changes that have occurred since the Paris Agreement. It is becoming increasingly clear that the fight against climate change and the protection of biodiversity are related: these two priorities must be reconciled and the means used to achieve this must be consistent. On the other hand, the realization that we cannot deal effectively with these issues without taking powerful measures of social justice is increasingly shared, be it the modalities for setting the price of carbon or the accompaniment in the activities, of the territories and of the the people who are directly affected. COP26 also provides the opportunity to fulfill the commitment made by various sectors to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions (cement, construction, agriculture, automobile, air transport, maritime transport, etc.). Glasgow will have to show the convergence of all these actions, to which is added a specific monitoring and evaluation.
Meeting these objectives becomes even more essential in the current period in which there are shortages and increases in the price of energy and in which certain large emitters of CO₂ are turning more to coal. These movements must be prevented from opposing the drastic reduction of fossil fuels, which should not be lost in the ecological transition. It is also one of the main challenges for Glasgow.
Six years ago, when I gave the opening speech of COP21, I said the following: “I believe in success because we all know that the fight against global warming is much more than an environmental issue: it is an essential condition to supply food and in water to the planet, to save biodiversity and protect health, to fight poverty and mass migration, to deter wars and encourage peace and, ultimately, to give sustainable development and life a chance ”. The challenge remains the same, and in fact it is even more pressing today, and our responsibility to future generations is immense. Skepticism about climate change has receded. But now, through action and results, we must reverse climate fatalism as well. That is where the challenge of Glasgow COP26 lies.
You can follow CLIMA AND ENVIRONMENT at Facebook and Twitter, or sign up here to receive our weekly newsletter
#COP26 #Glasgow #accelerator #action #climate #change