The two sensations that predominate in Colombia before the arrival of Gustavo Petro to the presidency of the country this Sunday are hope and joy. A study by the consulting firm Cifras yconcepts It has put data on what has been perceived in the country until the installation of the first left-wing government in the recent history of the country. Gustavo Petro enters the House of Nariño with an image that reaches 62% favorability, while Iván Duque ends his term with 33%. Hope, joy, confidence and surprise are the emotions —and words— that citizens feel and hear the most with the change of government.
The figures that support the reforms that Petro has announced that it will carry out over the next four years are as high as the expectations about them. More than 84% of citizens agree with announcements such as the health reform, the energy transition or the reestablishment of relations with Venezuela. Petro begins his mandate living a honeymoon with much of the country. His first challenge will be to make it last.
The Historical Pact, the alliance of formations and personalities that were grouped around Petro and Francia Márquez, won the presidency with an ambitious plan that implies changes in all sectors of the State. However, as warns the political risk consultancy Colombia Risk Analysis, it is not clear whether any of the policies he announced can actually be implemented at the start of his government. “Petro will inherit a country with high debt and complex social problems, with some Colombians feeling grateful for what he promises to accomplish, while others remain uneasy about his agenda. The first days of Petro, if they comply with his progressive campaign and align with his government program, signal a monumental change in Duque’s outgoing attitude, “says the agency. in a report about what to expect from the new government in the first 100 days.
Carlos Arias, a professor at the Faculty of Government of the Externado University of Colombia, believes that the emotional expectation with which Petro arrives at the presidency works for and against. “To the extent that there is more hope, more follow-up and review will be done. Him and every official he names. There has never been so much surveillance on a cabinet. Colombians not only expect a change in the structure of the State, but also in the way of doing politics, one that is transparent, that fights openly against corruption and that respects and guarantees respect for human rights”, he says. In the short term, he points out, the new government should advance in aspects that directly target the electorate that voted for it: expand education coverage, guarantee food security and contain unemployment.
Petro, who is not on the side of the opposition for the first time, will have to become a unifying political leader who can create consensus across the political spectrum, notes Colombia Risk. Not in vain, more than 10 million people voted for his rival, Rodolfo Hernández, in a vote that was measured more as anti-Petro than support for the businessman. “The continuation of moderation or a return to his combative leadership style will come to light within the first few days, a telling indicator of his ability to implement a coherent government program or maintain a stable cabinet throughout his term. ”, says the consultant.
Gustavo Petro has taken advantage of the appointments of his government to send a message of calm in the face of the concern that his name aroused at the beginning of the campaign. The election of José Antonio Ocampo as Minister of Economy worked to calm the markets and even reassure the opposition. Other designations such as Carolina Corcho in Health served to please his electoral base. Now, and also as a challenge from his first days in power, Petro will have to manage to keep his cabinet intact as a sign of stability, while trying to carry out the most urgent reforms that he proposed in the campaign: the tax reform, the pension reform, the agrarian reform and the national development plan. Other important ones, such as the one that seeks to change the health model, the reform of the police, the energy reform and the creation of the Ministry of Equality are not among the immediate ones, but they are also part of the list of promises that their voters expect comply.
Carlos Suárez, a lawyer and political adviser, says that before the great reforms, Petro will face more immediate challenges, which will begin to measure the pulse of what his government will be like. “The first great test before public opinion will be his position regarding the election of comptroller. That is an election that is on the table in the first days of his government and we will see if he winks at one of the candidates or if he lets Congress choose, ”says Suárez. Another short-term expectation will be about the names that remain to be appointed in his cabinet, if they respond to the renewal and change that he promises, or if they will be political quotas with the traditional parties, with which the Government is seeking an agreement that will help it promote their initiatives in Congress.
Suárez says that the expectations about the government that is beginning are also about the way in which it relates to the Armed Forces from the beginning, especially with the police, the institution most questioned during the social unrest and responsible for human rights violations against the young people who protested against the Government of Iván Duque and who ended up pushing the election of Petro. “It will also be important to see how the government relates to the opposition, but not only politically, but also what may arise in the traditional media, where governments normally manage to co-opt them. We will see if the change that people are demanding is also reflected in the way in which Petro relates to public opinion”, says Suárez.
For the first time in the history of Colombia, the country hopes that the change of government implies much more than a change of host in the Casa de Nariño. Expectations for Gustavo Petro and Francia Márquez are as high as the enthusiasm aroused by their arrival at the Presidency, which breaks with the historic transfer of power between political elites.
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