The CIS reduces the advantage of the PSOE over the PP to 2.5 points while Sumar and Vox fall

The PSOE continues to be the most voted force according to the Center for Sociological Research (CIS), but its advantage over the PP has been reduced in the last month. From the four points that Pedro Sánchez’s team gained from Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s team in September, in the October Barometer they have an advantage of only 2.5 points. And the estimate from the institute directed by José Félix Tezanos expands support for both PSOE and PP, while Sumar and Vox fall considerably.

Specifically, the CIS grants the PSOE 34% of the support compared to 31.5% for the PP. The socialists add votes compared to the last study, that of September, in which the Tezanos institute granted them 33% of the votes. But the popular ones rise even more – they go from 28.5% of the previous barometer to 31.5% – and manage to increase their votes by three points in a single month.

In this scenario, the PSOE would obtain a better result than in the 2023 general elections, when it reached 31.7% of support, and the PP would still not achieve the victory it achieved then, when 33.1% of Spaniards supported it. .

The rise of the two major parties directly affects the fall of their respective rivals in the same ideological spectrum. Vox falls two points and goes from 13.1% of the votes in September to 11.8% in October. The extreme right is thus below the result it obtained in the 2023 general elections, when it reached 12.4% of support.

Sumar, for its part, fell 1.5 points and went from 7.8% of the votes last month to 6.3% today. Thus, the left-wing coalition would maintain its collapse compared to the last general elections in which it was just one tenth below Vox, with 12.3% of citizens’ votes. We can also fall when compared to the previous barometer. It goes from 3.6% of the votes in September to the current 3.3%.

The coalition devised by Yolanda Díaz is, precisely, the political formation that retains its voters the least, always according to the study that was carried out between October 1 and 11 through 4,005 interviews. Only 49% of Spaniards who supported him in the 2023 general elections would vote for her again. 24.4% of those who voted for them would now opt for Podemos and another 11.7% would go to the PSOE.

The fidelity of the vote is also breaking down in Vox. Of the citizens who supported the extreme right in 2023, 76.7% would maintain their vote, but one in ten (10.4%) would go to the ultra MEP Alvise Pérez’s project, Se Acabó La Fiesta (SALF). Another 7.8% of Vox voters would now choose to support Feijóo’s PP.

The two big parties are, for the moment, the ones that best retain their voters. 82% of the citizens who supported it a year ago would vote for the PP, although 6% would now go to Vox. In the case of the PSOE, 80.1% of voters would maintain their loyalty to the socialist project, although a significant number, 3.7%, would choose to go to the PP, 3.1% would go to Sumar and 1.1%, to Vox.

The majority of citizens who opted to abstain on June 23 would still not go to the polls if new general elections were held now. But 22.5% of them would go to their polling stations to support the PSOE; 12.1%, to the PP; 8.1%, to Vox and 1.6%, to Sumar. Another 1.9% of abstentionists would now vote for Podemos and 1.7% for SALF.

In the assessment of leaders, both Sánchez and Díaz see the approval percentage reduced. The first continues to be the best rated, although it goes from the 4.28 that citizens gave it on average in September to the current 4.13. The October Barometer, however, represents a change in trend since for the first time Feijóo surpasses the second vice president and Minister of Labor in evaluation by the minimum. The leader of the PP obtains a 4.02 and Díaz, a 3.99.

Although it also grows minimally, Santiago Abascal continues to be the political leader least valued by citizens, by a wide distance compared to his rivals. In October, citizens gave it, on average, a 2.93 rating.