After two years of the pandemic and in the midst of a war in Europe with its respective repercussions, the cost of living and the loss of purchasing power are the issues that most concern the French, according to surveys. But France’s role abroad and the divisions in domestic politics will also mark the next president’s room for maneuver on other issues such as education and a possible pension reform.
The results of the presidential elections in France will throw implications inside and outside its borders.
With discontent over the rising cost of living as inflation reaches its highest levels in years, one problem resonates for the next government and in the minds of the French: regaining purchasing power.
The economy resurfaces to the top of the agenda to the point where it helped drown far-right candidate Marine Le Pen’s past connections to Russian President Vladimir Putin on the political spectrum. With her financial promises, Le Pen strengthened her chances to occupy the Elysee.
And above criticism for some of his economic policies, President Emmanuel Macron promised “more social justice and support to improve the purchasing power” of the French.
But France is also a highly influential figure in the European Union (EU) and the only nuclear power on the other side of the Atlantic with veto power in the UN Security Council. In the face of Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine, the French government will help shape Europe’s response to the war and its global consequences.
Economy, growing concern among the French
France is the second largest economy in the EU, but that does not mean that it is exempt from the blows of a pandemic and an ongoing war in Eastern Europe that have shaken global markets and directly affect the pocketbook of citizens.
Opinion polls show that this is one of the main concerns of voters. The polls also indicate that many French people are unhappy with Macron’s economic policies, which in the last five years have included cuts in social spending and cuts in corporate taxes and social contributions.
The restrictions due to the health emergency have been lifted in the country, but in addition to the infections that are growing again, its financial effects continue.
The next president will face dizzying public deficits to deal with the impact left by the pandemic, a pension system that many say needs to be reformed, and measures to reindustrialize the country.
In contrast, unemployment in the nation has reached its lowest level in years. According to figures from the national statistics institute Insee, the French territory ended 2021 with an unemployment rate of 7.4%, the lowest since 2008; and the activity rate, marked 73.5%, the highest since records began in 1975.
Although for young people the figure is around 16%, a sector of the population that will require specific policies to get out of the problem.
Despite overall optimistic margins on the job front, citizens have seen the cost of living skyrocket due to rising fuel and energy prices and rising inflation, largely because of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict.
Another of the big red dots on the economic scene is the trade deficit: in 2021 it was 84.7 billion euros. French exports have fallen from 6.3% in 1990 to less than 2.5% today.
Although the nation has registered this loss for two decades, in recent years it has worsened, which illustrates the competitiveness problems of its companies, which have lost share in the international market, especially to China.
Reindustrializing is then a great pending issue to reverse the negative trend.
pension reform
As pointed out by Macron, pensions in France are unsustainable and the system requires urgent reform. Raising the retirement age, with exceptions for those with difficult jobs or who worked longer than others, is necessary to make the system workable and boost low pensions, he says.
“Those who tell you that we can keep (the pension system) as it is now are lying to you,” emphasized the president, questioned by criticism of his plan to increase the retirement age from 62 years of age, currently, at 65.
However, the leader of the extreme right, Marine Le Pen, stated that delaying the time of retirement would harm employees, since many would not be able to find a job at an older age and, as a consequence, their pension would be affected.
For this reason, it has been in favor of maintaining the threshold of 62 years, and even reducing it for those who started working before the age of 20.
The war in Ukraine, the center of French foreign policy?
The large-scale attack launched by Russia against Ukraine on February 24 has shocked Europe and beyond. Whoever wins the Presidency in France will have to deal with the consequences.
While the conflict continues at the gates of the bloc of 27 countries, Paris under a pro-European and pro-NATO mandate has shown its influence on the international stage.
However, the outlook for the country, the region and the rest of the world would be different if the Presidency falls to a Eurosceptic leader. Macron is the only favorite who openly supports the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
A change in this position would deal a blow to the political-military alliance built to protect its members in the then emerging Cold War 73 years ago.
“Macron really wants to create a European pillar of NATO (…) He has used it for his itinerant diplomacy on the Ukraine conflict,” says Susi Dennison, senior member of the European Council on Foreign Relations.
During the campaign, several candidates expressed their interest in a decrease in commitment to the alliance or a complete withdrawal. Although unlikely, France’s departure from NATO, if it took the step, would create a deep chasm with its allies.
The United States has frequently pointed to France as its oldest ally: from Russian sanctions, climate change to UN resolutions, among others, Washington needs a reliable partner in Paris.
The nation is a vital transatlantic friend to the US government, not least because of its status as the only country in continental Europe that is a permanent member of the UN Security Council with veto power.
After the United Kingdom left the European Union, France is the main military power of the bloc. It is also arguably the EU’s second-largest economy, and Angela Merkel’s departure as German chancellor has given the Elysee leader a more prominent role in Europe.
Education, point of internal discontent
In the last year, the educational sector has been the protagonist of different anti-government protests, in which they have even pointed out an “abandonment” by the State.
Teachers demand a salary increase, arguing that their field in French territory is one of the worst paid, compared to the rest of Europe.
Those affected point out that at the beginning of their careers they can earn 7% less than the average of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
Likewise, teachers complain about the lack of personnel in educational centers. They refute a system that they say makes it difficult for new teachers to arrive due to processes that are not efficient or agile for their selection, which is why some teachers must work in several institutions.
In this sense, educators also point out that classes usually have a number of students greater than recommended. With classrooms that have more than 30 and 40 students, the situation becomes counterproductive and detrimental to learning processes, they denounce.
Social and political polarization is still present
France represents the economic and social disparities between urban and rural areas, which influence political preferences.
The center and northeast of the country encompass the old industrial zones of the country and have become a bastion where there is currently a special acceptance of the protectionist discourse, such as that of the right-wing National Grouping movement.
In the west of the nation and in large cities, such as Paris, the centrism of Macron’s party The Republic on the March stands out, young people are mainly in favor of a Europeanist vision.
These differences denote the panorama in which the French Legislative power finds itself. The political landscape is still feeling the shock waves from the 2017 elections when Macron won the Presidency.
In the event of continuity in the Executive, it will still be necessary for the centrist party La República en Marcha, which has failed in all recent local elections, and its allies to win the legislative elections in June in order to have a solid platform that allows it to maneuver against the opposition and implement their policies.
With Reuters, AP and EFE
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