The Central Bank of Russia predicted the likelihood of a new global financial crisis in 2023. About this scenario it says in the published draft of the main directions of the country’s monetary policy until 2024.
The main prerequisite for the crisis, which may turn out to be comparable in scale to 2008, is the growth of the global debt of states and major corporations. As a result, the US government will tighten its lending policy, and investors will immediately start getting rid of risky stocks, bringing down the markets. The situation will be aggravated by the fall in oil prices to $ 40 per barrel.
In the event of such a development of events, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation expects that the Russian economy will “sag” in 2023
by 1.4-2.4 percent. The recovery will be protracted and will stretch over several quarters, but by 2024 the growth rate will reach 3.0-4.0 percent.
In addition to the crisis, the regulator considered other events that may have an impact on the global economy. Thus, the “Base” scenario assumes that in the context of the ongoing vaccination of the world’s population and the effectiveness of vaccines against coronavirus, the active recovery of the world economy will continue. In the second half of 2021, the growth rate of the global economy will exceed potential. Taking into account the dynamics of the market and the OPEC + agreement, the average oil price will be $ 65 per barrel, but will gradually decline.
In the case of the option “Strengthening the pandemic”, the Central Bank expects a repeat of the events of 2020. So, in the first quarter of 2022, the coronavirus may spread rapidly, and tough anti-epidemic restrictions will significantly reduce global economic activity. At the same time, the decline in the Russian economy will be somewhat less due to the accumulated experience of the health care system and the economy in such conditions. In this case, adaptation will occur faster, and in 2023, against the background of active recovery processes, the GDP growth rate will accelerate to 3.5–4.5 percent.
The Global Inflation option assumes that commodity prices will continue to rise, with oil prices likely to reach $ 75 a barrel in 2022. The normalization of the monetary policy of developed countries will lead to a cooling of the growth rates of the foreign economy and a reduction in external demand. In this case, Russian exports will support the growth of the domestic economy to 2.4–3.4 percent next year, but further the growth of Russian GDP will decline to 1.8–2.8 percent.
In August, the managing director of the NRA’s rating service, Sergei Grishunin, named the reasons for the future global economic crisis. The expert pointed out that the currently observed high inflation around the world is the first sign of an overheating of the global economy. He pointed out that global price increases are fueled by rising inflation in the United States. “However, it is not even an economic crisis caused by purely financial factors that is more likely, but an economic crisis caused by environmental and social factors, as well as factors of corporate governance,” Grishunin said.
He clarified that potential risks are currently associated with an increase in dangerous weather events, the likelihood of new dangerous viruses and a general increase in social inequality. As for Russia, the risk is that the consumption of hydrocarbons in the world may decrease: namely, they account for up to 60 percent of exports.
According to Bloomberg forecasts, the world economy will grow in the future: in the next quarter, global GDP may rise by 1.8 percent. However, despite robust global growth figures, the agency says the global economy is recovering unevenly. China quickly coped with the virus, and the United States stimulated the economy with huge amounts – and these steps allowed the two world giants to raise production to pre-pandemic levels and become the driving forces of the global recovery.
On September 2, it became known that Russia’s international reserves as of August 27 amounted to $ 615.6 billion and updated their historical maximum. This was reported on the website of the Central Bank (CB). The previous record was recorded on May 28, 2021 – $ 605.9 billion. Prior to this, it was reported that the Ministry of Finance has spent a trillion rubles since the beginning of 2021 on the purchase of currency, which is transferred to the National Welfare Fund (NWF). Experts predict that by the end of the year the NWF will be replenished with currency by 2 trillion rubles.
On June 29, the press secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov assessed the economic situation in the country against the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic. As the Kremlin spokesman noted, Russia is demonstrating positive dynamics in the economic sphere and is beginning to get out of the crisis, “people on the ground feel it.” “The economy is working now, the situation is different than when there was a lockdown,” he said. The official admitted that “the difficulties continue, continue, as after the earthquake, aftershocks”, but the situation has changed, now the economy does not require such massive state support, which was provided last year.