THE RECENT ELECTIONS in the State of Mexico made three things clear: the pettiness of the political class to blame one another, the high turnout and apathy of the voters, and the traps of the pollsters who sell themselves to the highest bidder.
Much has already been said about the lack of democratic culture in our society and in political parties. But little has been said about the companies that do surveys.
These have become a juicy business because they are the axis of campaign political strategies to try to generate perception in public opinion and try to induce or discourage voters.
In a comparative analysis it is clearly shown that with the exception of three that were correct within a minimum margin of error, the rest had serious failures and mistakes.
From Parametría, El Financiero, Enkoll, Covarrubias and many others, even unknown worldwide, the polls “failed”, to put it politically correct.
This also shows the belief that an attempt has been made to build that Morena’s pre-candidate for the Presidency in 2024, Claudia Sheinbaum, was the winner with the triumph of teacher Delfina Gómez.
This would have been the case if Morena had won by at least 15 points, given the waste of public resources, the use of federal social programs, the party machinery, and the intervention of governors.
But an 8% victory with the levels of abstentionism and the lukewarmness of Governor Alfredo del Mazo does not seem like a resounding victory, especially if those of Coahuila are added to the Edomex results.
It is clear that the presidential succession of 2024 has already started and the
President Andrés Manuel López Obrador will directly participate in that election of his government project.
A generally accepted margin of error is 3-5%; surveys that fall two digits outside of that range may be considered unserious, unprofessional, or even “scooped up.”
The margin of error can be due to the number of polls, the phrasing and order of questions, among other factors, or outright a deliberate error to support a candidate.
If the methodologies are different, the margins are different and the phrasing is different. There is only one explanation: an attitude consisting of creating a false perception and manipulating the results of the survey.
Be careful: the same polls that failed in Edomex are the ones that have Sheinbaum “above” Marcelo Ebrard and Adán Augusto López; the same Delfina strategy is repeated on Alejandra del Moral.
If the Head of Government of the CdMx wants to take the advantage that the polls give her to the field of facts, she will have to carry out a real campaign without the resources and machinery that her position gives her.
Sheinbaum and Adán Augusto will most likely resign from their respective posts as soon as next week, after pressure from Ebrard, who leaves the Foreign Ministry on Monday.
ROSA ICELA RODRÍGUEZ is shaping up to shortly replace Adán Augusto López in the Ministry of the Interior. The name of the current Secretary of Security and Citizen Protection is the one that sounds with much more force, above that of the Undersecretary of the Interior Alejandro Encinas and even that of Zoé Robledo, the director of the IMSS, who also entered the deck. Rodríguez has proven to be an efficient and loyal collaborator of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. It is expected that the resignation of the former governor of Tabasco will take place in the first days of the following week to also fully initiate his campaign in search of Morena’s candidacy for the Presidency. It will not be the same case for Claudia Sheinbaum, which could take more days because her final removal will have to go through a legislative process. The signs indicate that Luz Elena González, the CdMx Secretary of Administration and Finance, will be proposed to ensure an administrative transition and, above all, an orderly government closure. Her nomination has to be approved by the CdMx Congress. In the case of Marcelo Ebrard in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the candidates mentioned are Juan Ramón de la Fuente and Esteban Moctezuma.
THERE IS NO TIME that does not arrive and it seems that the time has come for the Attorney General of the State of Mexico. José Luis Cervantes’s days are numbered, and after the 8% difference between the new state governor, Delfina Gómez, and the PRI, PAN, PRD and Nueva Alianza candidate, Alejandra del Moral, there is not much to do to that the current prosecutor can stay in office. Cervantes is identified as part of the group of officials who arrived at the then State Attorney’s Office with Alberto Bazbaz, during the six-year term of Enrique Peña Nieto, as well as other high-level officials of the then federal government. Why doesn’t the new government team, headed by Horacio Duarte, want prosecutor Cervantes? Very simple: a few days ago Bazbaz, former director of Peña Nieto’s Cisen, was accused of being the one in charge of carrying out espionage against the campaign team of the Morena candidate. Today that team must make sure that this character is left out, if they want to have a hermetic transition process and without spies in the closet. For the new Edomex political group, the enemy is in the living room of his new house.
AS SAID: MORENA won the elections in Edomex. They don’t have to be proud of more. Between the abstention, the scabbing of Dante Delgado and the pitiful sidekick performance of Salomón Chertorivski for Movimiento Ciudadano, but above all the support of the Green Ecologist Mexican Party (PVEM) that managed to win a surprising 10% of the votes, Andrés’s movement Manuel López Obrador managed to end 94 years of PRI hegemony. And it is precisely in the Toucan game where you have to fix your eyes. His owner, Jorge Emilio González, is absent: he is fighting colon cancer that has been bedridden for weeks in a clinic in the United States. The green herd is running amok in three factions: Jesús Sesma and Arturo Escobar, giving open support to Claudia Sheinbaum with charges in the CdMx, Javier López Casarín leading from the Chamber of Deputies a fraction of legislators loyal to Marcelo Ebrard, and Manuel Velasco opening up I pass like a fifth “corcholata”.
AT THE END OF last year and the beginning of this 2023, several companies dedicated to outdoor advertising in the CdMx were visited by officials of Claudia Sheinbaum, who raised the revalidation of the permits by making an offer: they would be renewed without problem, but they would have to Support the Head of Government. Two weeks ago they returned to fulfill the commitment, but what would be the surprise, because the images they were given were of Marcelo Ebrard. The publicists began to work with the material they were sent, but they doubt if it is a counter-campaign or someone from Claudia’s team already believes that the “good” cap is the still Chancellor, because the promotion is preparatory to the survey . Keep an eye out for the billboards – there will be surprises with what’s on display.
THE SUPREME COURT of Justice of the Nation is hearing the criminal matter for the labor discrimination suffered by Leonardo Poblete due to his sexual orientation at the hands of UBS, which in Mexico commands Guadalupe Morales. Minister Arturo Zaldívar endorsed the request for resumption of jurisdiction of that highest court as he considered it relevant and transcendent. This issue will not only set a precedent for populations of sexual diversity, but will also provide clarity regarding the criminal liability of companies in the CdMx and other states. If there is one thing that can be said about the Court, it is that it is one of the most progressive in the world, especially in terms of human rights and protection of vulnerable groups.