The autumn of 2024 was the seventh warmest since 1961, according to Aemet

Thus, Aemet has indicated that the period between September 1 and November 30 was very warm. In peninsular Spain, an average of 15.5ºC was reachedwhich is 1.1ºC above the average for this season compared to the reference period between 1991 and 2020. In this regard, he pointed out that no autumn has been recorded with temperatures below the usual average since 2010.

Cold September, warm October and extremely warm November

By zonesthe state agency has detailed that the autumn was extremely warm in a large part of the Region of Murcia, south of the Valencian Community and on the Andalusian Mediterranean coast, while it was warm or very warm in the rest of peninsular Spain. In the Balearic Islands it was very warm. This way, The archipelago had an average of 19.5ºCwhile in the Canary Islands it had a variable character from one area to another, which was overall very warm.

For months, Aemet has specified that September was cold; October, warm; and November had an extremely warm character with a average temperature 2.8ºC above usualwhich made it the warmest November since 1961, the beginning of the state agency’s series.

In this regard, the agency has highlighted that warm episodes largely predominated. Among them, it has focused on those that occurred between October 29 and November 11 and from November 14 to 21, with very high temperatures for the time. In turn, it has indicated that on the 8th of that month a maximum of 37.1ºC was reached in La Aldea de San Nicolás (Gran Canaria), the highest recorded anywhere in Spain in the month of November.

October, record for rainy month and November for dry

As far as rain is concerned, Aemet has explained that autumn has been mostly wet setwith an average rainfall over peninsular Spain of 236.5 liters per square meter (l/m2), 118% of the normal value for the quarter in the reference period 1991-2020. In this context, he pointed out that it was the twentieth wettest autumn since 1961 and the seventh of the 21st century.

In a good part of the northeastern quadrant of the peninsula the season was very very humid, as well as in Cádiz, Huelva and some other points in the interior of the Peninsula and Galicia. On the contrary, autumn was dry in the Canary Islandsnortheast of the Balearic Islands and Catalonia, as well as in areas of Madrid, Extremadura, Castilla y León, the Basque Country, Asturias and Galicia.

For months, the state agency has explained that September was wet. October had an extremely humid character and, in fact, was the wettest in the historical series with rainfall close to double the normal amount. November, on the other hand, has been very dry and The rains have not even reached half of what usualwhich has led it to become the second driest November of the 21st century, only behind 2004.

In this context, Aemet has made reference to DANA and has indicated that on October 29, an extraordinary episode of very intense rainfall occurred that affected the Mediterranean area of ​​the eastern peninsula. Thus, the presence of a DANA and the arrival of very humid winds that crossed a warmer than normal Mediterranean resulted, together with other more local factors, in important storm systems that affected the provinces of Valencia, Cuenca, Albacete and Murcia. According to the agency, that day there was also very intense rain in the province of Malaga.

For the rest, it has also focused on the torrential rainfall that occurred at the beginning of November in the Mediterranean area. Among them, the 144.2 l/m2 recorded on day 4 in Barcelona/airport stood out, the highest amount recorded in 24 hours of its entire series.

A warmer than normal winter

Looking ahead to winter, the state agency has indicated that the seasonal prediction for December, January and February shows that the most likely scenario is higher than normal temperatures throughout the country, with greater probability in the northwest and southern third of the Peninsulaas well as in the two archipelagos.

In turn, he has indicated that the most likely scenario in terms of precipitation is that there will be less rain than usual. In this regard, he pointed out that There is a 40 to 50% chance that this will be the case.so the forecast uncertainties are very high. There is no clear trend for the eastern end of the peninsula and the Balearic Islands.

Aemet spokesperson, Rubén del Campo, has indicated that there is a “not insignificant” probability of between 40 and 70% that winter is among the 20% of the warmest, although he has admitted that it is “complicated” to predict. if it’s going to be the warmest.

Specifically, he has specified that the week before Christmas will generally be calm, with cold, although within the usual range, and that the same can be expected for the week from Christmas to New Year’s Eve. It has done so based on the forecast of the European Center for Medium-Range Forecasting.

High temperatures throughout Spain

Thus, it has indicated that temperatures will be higher than normal in almost all of Spain except in northern parts for the week of December 16 to 22. At the same time, it has also been reported that it seems that the week will be less rainy than usual in the north and east, also in parts of Galicia and in the archipelagos.

Regarding the following week, December 23 to 29, he described that, even “with tweezers”, it seems that thermal values ​​will be around normal values ​​for December. Even so, there are some spots of temperature somewhat below normal in areas such as the Duero and the Tagus, among others, which could indicate fogs that could persist. Although it seems that it would be a week with little rain, it is still unclear what will happen in the Mediterranean area.

Given that temperatures will be above normal according to the forecasts, the Aemet spokesperson has advanced that it does not seem like it will be a winter “especially heavy in snowfall.”

More generally, Del Campo has explained that it is likely that 2024 will end up being a wet year, given that at the beginning of December the normal value for the entire year had already been exceeded with 640 l/m2. Likewise, he added that although for now 2024 is not going to be the warmest year since the beginning of the historical series, it does reach the podium: it is the third warmest in the historical series since 1961, only surpassed by 2022 and 2023.