The Atlantic hurricane season has just begun and experts warn that it will be more active than normal

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Hurricane Otis left a scar in Mexico. In addition to generating economic losses that reached $15 billion – making it the most costly climate event of 2023 – it was also an almost unprecedented phenomenon. In just 12 hours, Otis went from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane, the highest possible classification, giving clues that the dynamics of hurricanes and storms could be changing.

This 2024 Atlantic hurricane season – this time on the other side of the continent – ​​could also yield other clues. According to the predictions of the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), it will be “above normal.”

What NOAA is warning is that, with an 85% probability, this season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, there will be more storms strong enough to be named when compared to an average year. . Between 17 and 25 named storms are expected to be generated in total, of which between 8 and 13 could become hurricanes and between 4 and 7 could be considered major, above category 3.

To have a reference to how out of date this season could be, Bernadette Woods Placky, chief meteorologist and director of Climate Matters, He explained during a press conference that the annual average is 14 for the first category, 7 for the second and 3 for the third. “They are predictions about storms in general, without yet knowing if they will reach land,” clarified the expert, adding that, so far, it is impossible to indicate what their trajectory will be or if they will reach any coast.

In the Atlantic, added Dr. Katharine Hayhoe, chief scientist of The Nature Conservancy, certain perfect ingredients are emerging for storms to cook. To the development of the conditions of the La Niña phenomenon in the Pacific – which is expected to become official later this year – are added the almost record temperatures of the Atlantic Ocean and the reduction of the trade winds. “Storms capture their energy from the ocean, so high temperatures increase the probability of a storm becoming a hurricane,” said the scientist. And although there is still no certainty that climate change is generating a greater number of hurricanes, Hayhoe recalls that it is influencing them, negatively, in several aspects.

“Climate change is making hurricanes worse in multiple ways,” he said. It’s intensifying them faster, they’re getting stronger, they last on the ground longer, and they seem to get a lot more rain. “We must remember that the ocean absorbs up to 90% of the heat that is released by climate change generated by human activities,” so the fact that the Atlantic, just before the beginning of the hurricane season, had high temperatures, does not It could be good news.

For hurricanes to form, ocean temperatures must reach 26°C. And by May 2024, even before the start of hurricane season was declared, the waters of the Atlantic tropical belt were recording warmer temperatures than any other May. In the Caribbean, for this same month, the waters were already reaching a weekly average of 28°C, a temperature that usually does not occur before August.

This, experts insist, does not mean that the season will be worse in the Caribbean or that all the storms will reach the mainland, so there is really no way to predict whether it will be a catastrophic or extreme season in terms of the damage that can be caused. trigger. The truth is that there is enough information for countries to prepare as best as possible. NOAA, for example, announced that since National Hurricane Center They created a system to translate their texts into Spanish and thus reach a larger population, although its reach is only in the United States.

So the recommendation, says Woods, is to pay attention to the early warnings from the meteorological services of each country and have clear evacuation routes. Otis made one thing clear: storms can intensify faster than expected and, given this, decisions and the level of emergency are greater. “This changes everything, because you can’t get people out in the same amount of time,” he concluded.