The impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 has increased again to 3.1%, the highest registered figure for a racing in the contemporary history of spatial surveillance. After 370 measurements, the center for the study of objects close to the Earth (CNOs) updated the parameters of the space rock that will approach the Earth on December 22, 2032.
Until now, the asteroid with greater probabilities of collision was apofis, known as “the cities destroyer”, with a probability of 2.7%. The asteroid, discovered at the end of December 2024, had an initial impact probability of 1.2%. As the observations are added, the information increases and the calculations become more precise. Astronomers expect that the probability of collision will continue to fluctuate, although they recognize that the impact scenario remains extremely remote.
Even so, asteroid 2024 YR4 is large enough and will happen too close to ignore it. It measures between 40 and 100 meters, and if it impacts, it could do it at a speed of 17.32 kilometers per second. The calculated energy of the possible collision is 7.8 megatones, equivalent to 520 Hiroshima pumps. From its location, the planetary defense protocol corresponding to all level three asteroids on the Turin scale was activated.
The collision could inject huge amounts of dust into the Earth’s atmosphere, with dramatic consequences for terrestrial and marine ecosystems.
According to the Plan, the UN commissioned the specific monitoring of the car to the international asteroid alert network (IAWN) and the Space Missions Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG) to assess the risk. If necessary, these organisms must also present mitigation plans in case of impact.
Astronomers point out that the probability of collision increases as it is known more on the route of 2024 YR4. For now, it has been confirmed that it will go through a “corridor” in which the earth is located and also the moon. With sufficient information, that expanding traffic area will be reduced and perhaps the planet will leave the possible shock zone. If so, after reaching a risk limit, the probabilities would collapse to 0. A similar case occurred with Apofis, which lit the alarms of the scientific community until it was confirmed that it would not collide in 2027.
This does not imply that the collision scenario is not reviewed. Currently, some engineers from the main asteroid monitoring centers have calculated a strip in which 2024 YR4 could fall. This strip covers from northern South America, through the Pacific Ocean, crossing Africa and the Arabic Sea, to southern Asia. Countries like India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Sudan, Nigeria, Venezuela, Colombia and Ecuador would be on the list of risk sites.
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