The new president of the United States, Donald Trump, is climbing a commercial conflict with his neighboring countries (Canada and Mexico), China or the European Union (EU) with the ultra -nationalist justification of the “Make America Great Again [Haz a América grande otra vez, en inglés]” An aggressive and erratic policy of increased tariffs (for the moment, especially threats) that in practice is using as a negotiation weapon to impose their interests beyond strictly economic, such as migratory, geopolitics …
Always according to Donald Trump’s speech, the justification of the tariff conflict is that globalization and immigrants are guilty of the destruction of industries and jobs in the world’s first power. “Some studies have found that millions of jobs were lost because of foreign competition, but that is not the only cause. The most important factor was automation, ”observes the economist Joseph S. Nye, In a recent article.
However, “populist leaders find it easier to blame foreigners than machines. They also blame immigrants, who can be good for the economy in the long term, but are easy to present as the cause of disruptive change in the short term, ”continues this Havard professor, who held high positions in the administration of the president Bill Clinton. The vast majority of economists and experts, inside and outside the United States, warn that the commercial conflict that Donald Trump is burning is a strategy with which we “lose all”, as explained in this information, or in this other.
It is “crazy,” says economist Gabriel Zucman. “Repliations are a situation in which all countries involved will be damaged. And because the costs of responding with more tariffs for the United States would not be so large, since Canada and Mexico are just a seventh part of the size of the first world power, they may not deter Trump Donald Trump, ”he continues.
China has already announced its reprisals, more tariffs in response to those of the United States. “Canada and Mexico [a los que Estados Unidos concedió una tregua de un mes] They could, and probably they will, try to point to American and politically sensitive American industries in the hope of making the cost higher for Trump: oil, key exports, prohibit Twitter … ”, continues Gabriel Zucman, in A comment thread published in Blueskythe social network to which many Twitter users (now called X) have migrated for the decisions and political positions of its owner, billionaire Elon Musk, one of Donald Trump’s main support, along with other rich such as Jeff Bezos (Amazon) or Mark Zuckerberg (Meta).
These reprisals “do not really address the problem, since Trump could always take similar measures, so there is this understandable vision that countries like Canada and Mexico are too small to do something unilaterally effective but that is a mistake!” The French economist, who in recent years, together with other experts, has headed campaigns for greater global fiscal justice, and in favor of minimum taxes and worldwide coordinated to large companies and billionaires.
Precisely in that same line is in which Gabriel Zucman raises the counterattack to the tariffs of the United States. As argued, the first world power “has a weakness: its servile and highly internationalized oligarchy.” Why is a weakness? “Because it is a tiny number of people, who depend, for their wealth, on access to international markets, which gives foreign countries considerable power over them. Now is the time to use that power, ”he argues.
The approach comes from Report on ‘Global Fiscal Evasion’ of 2024that Gabriel Zucman coordinated together to other experts for the EU Tax Observatoryand in which Quentin Parrinello participated, who explains to Eldiario.es that “the idea is that countries could condition market access to foreign multinationals and billionaires”, forcing them to pay what is fair.
For example, Canada and Mexico “should impose tariffs on US oligarchs.” That is, if Tesla wants to sell cars in Canada and Mexico, then Elon Musk himself, as the main shareholder of Tesla, should have to pay taxes in Canada and Mexico. “Impose a wealth tax and condition Tesla’s access to the market to pay the tax,” says Gabriel Zucman, who has announced that he will publish his proposal soon.
As an advance, “what is important to understand is that they are measures that have much better properties than tariffs. They are more specific: the costs focus on US oligarchs and consumers of their assets. This approach changes the nature of the conflict: it is no longer a country against country, a safe recipe to inflame nationalist tensions, with all the risks involved, but consumers against oligarchs, ”he concludes.
“Join Elon Musk pay”
In the fifth chapter of the report of the EU Tax Observatory More details of this alternative response to Donald Trump’s tariff conflict can be known. “The general idea is that any country can act as a tax collector of the last instance, that is, to choose to collect some of the taxes that other countries decided not to collect,” he describes, both in the case of multinational companies and in the The billionaires.
In the report, an example is used: a billionaire, John, who lives in the United States and has a participation in a company valued at 10,000 million dollars. “To simplify, suppose that participation of 10,000 million dollars represents all its wealth.” According to the proposal, “any country could calculate John’s fiscal deficit, that is, the difference between what John pays in personal taxes today and what he would have to pay if he were subject to a minimum tax of 2% on equity [el mínimo global planteado en el marco de la OCDE para los milmillonarios]”
That is, John would have to pay 200 million in taxes on his wealth in total [el 2% de los 10.000 millones de su patrimonio]. But if John pays only 50 million dollars in the United States, he would have “a fiscal deficit” of 150 million. “Any country could then raise a part of that fiscal deficit. For example, if the company that John obtains his wealth makes 10% of his sales in India, then India could raise 10% of John’s fiscal deficit, that is, 15 million dollars, ”concludes the report .
The richest pay less taxes than ever
The richest people in the United States pay less taxes today than ever, and also less than the rest of the taxpayers, even the poorest in the country. A trend that has been aggravated in recent decades, and that extends to the rest of the economies developed, including the partners of the European Union (EU), including Spain, thanks to fiscal laws Capital and the companies of the Corporate Tax, which allows to use companies to evade taxes such as assets or successions.
According to the data collected By the ‘Tax Justice Now’ platform [Justicia fiscal ahora, en inglés]Americans with more rent pay about 23% in taxes with respect to all their annual income, with data until 2018. In 1950, their total contribution was 70.2%. In 1970, 52.7%. In 1990, 36%. In 2010, 27.7%.
This week, the Fedea analysis center has published A similar analysis for our country. With figures up to 2022, 1% of people with more rent in Spain pay 24.1% in taxes (adding IRPF, social quotes, societies, VAT, heritage …), while for 40% of people with Less income (the vast majority) The total tax contribution is between 27.5% to 37.1%.
In reaction to these figures and in the orientation of Gabriel Zucman, The American organization ‘Patriotic Millonaries’ [Millonarios patrióticos] Notice the risk of this trend for democracy: “We have long known that the United States is an oligarchy, since policies overwhelmingly reflect the preferences and interests of a small portion of rich individuals like us. But what we saw in Trump’s possession made it lighter than ever. Seeing the president swears the position flanked by the three richest men on the planet – Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg – left no doubt about who will have (and already has) more influence in his second term. ”
“Trump can claim to be the workers’ champion, but a look at the VIP section of his inauguration should make it clear that Trump is a man of billionaires,” he continues This group of millionairesled by investors, executives or heirs such as Abigail Disney, the musician Brian Eno, the filmmaker Richard Curtis or former general director of Blackrock Perla Morris, who claim that if it is intended to “safeguard democracies and prevent the world from falling more and more authoritarian hands. […] You have to start by taxing rich people like us. ”
Brake on progress towards global fiscal justice
Against these proposals, hours after his investiture, the new president of the United States, Donald Trump, stopped dry the progress towards greater global justice in tax collection. Among other urgent decrees in the same line, Trump signed an order that leaves in the air the minimum 15% tax to the benefits of multinationals agreed within the frame of the OECD to avoid the loss of public income due to the leak to fiscal den .
This week, the United States has executed another movement similar to withdrawing from the UN negotiations on a new global fiscal treaty, warning that any result of these conversations will be opposed, which end this Thursday, February 6.
#alternative #response #Trumps #tariffs #upload #taxes #Elon #Musk #Jeff #Bezos #Mark #Zuckerberg
