Election posters multiply and overlap in Brussels and other parts of Belgium. On Sunday, Belgians are called to vote, like millions of other European citizens, in the European elections. But they will also elect their representatives at the federal and regional level, in a historically convoluted electoral puzzle (the country has the absolute world record for days without a Government, 541, between 2010 and 2011) that now adds a piece that can disrupt the board: the strong advance of the Flemish far-right party Vlaams Belang (VB), according to forecasts, which could become the most voted force in the country. This would further complicate the formation of a government, especially if the rest of the forces commit to maintaining the traditional cordon sanitaire to the extreme right.
The polls confirm the advantage in the Flemish region of the ultra-independence, anti-Muslim and anti-immigrant party, as well as being eurosceptic (it promises to abolish the European Parliament). The VB, with almost 27% of the voting intention, is, for the first time, in the lead, displacing the until now leader of Flanders, the nationalists – but not extremes – of N-VA, to second place. The progress of the separatist formation led by Tom Van Grieken has been dazzling: from a marginal 3.7% in 2014 to being, probably, the most voted force in the country a decade later.
At a large rally last Sunday in Antwerp, the leader of VB assured that the party aspires to obtain at least one million votes in Flanders to “turn the country around.” The training has in its program the unilateral declaration of independence in the Flemish Parliament. However, in statements to Radio 2, Van Grieken declared himself willing not to divide the country if he manages to govern: “If they offer me the position of prime minister and allow me to implement all my other positions, it would not be necessary to divide Belgium.” said the ultra politician. “It doesn’t mean that I will accept the structure of Belgium, but if there is only a thin layer left, I will say yes,” he added, according to the Belgian national news agency. The other parties, including the N-VA, continue, however, not to trust the ultra formation.
Beyond confirming the turn to the extreme right of the richest region of the country, as in the neighboring Netherlands, a victory for the VB, which could obtain up to 26 of the 150 seats in the federal House of Representatives, would greatly complicate the formation of a national government if we want to continue avoiding its participation.
Seven-party coalition
The polls also indicate that the current government coalition, led by the liberal Alexander De Croo and made up of seven parties from the Flemish and Walloon families of the Socialists, the Liberals and the Ecologists, and the Christian Democrats of Flanders, would not achieve, to date today, add the necessary 76 seats (absolute majority) to remain at the head of the country. Nor would it do so, if they excluded the VB, a coalition of right-wing and liberal parties. Equally unviable is an alliance of left-wing and green parties, especially with the debacle of the environmentalists that the polls predict.
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The alternative, a coalition without the Vlaams Belang, but with N-VA (as the then Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel did in 2014, although it was precisely the Flemish nationalist party that brought down his Government in 2018 due to a dispute over migration) It also looks difficult. Although with the shadow of Vlaams Belang growing, it seems less and less impossible. Aware of the opportunity, the leader of N-VA, Bart de Wever, has been moderating his message in recent days and, this week, said that the independence of Flanders – until now the priority of his party – is not necessary. right now. “Confederalism is the next logical step. And if that leads to strengthening and protecting prosperity in Flanders, that is enough for me,” he said on a regional radio station on Thursday. “I have no obsessions, nationalism is an instrument of good governance, not an end in itself.”
The outgoing prime minister, the liberal De Croo, who has called for the formation of a center-right coalition for the next term, has shown himself willing to accept De Wever as prime minister “if it is about strengthening the country and not dividing it in two.” , as he said in an electoral debate before the leader of N-VA.
The almost impossible combination of parties – only those that obtain at least 5% of the total votes can aspire to form a government – will occur after Belgians are expected to go to the polls en masse this Sunday. And not only because doing so is mandatory—not the act of voting itself, but going to the polling station and presenting personal identification—but because traditionally there is a large participation. And that is not easy: voting in Belgium is so complicated that even newspapers repeatedly publish basic guides.
“If you think you understand Belgian politics, it probably hasn’t been explained to you well,” joked political scientist Dave Sinardet during an event in a Brussels theater to explain the process to the younger electorate, who were not able to answer correctly. most of the questions (nor did many of the adults present).
In Belgium, power is divided between the federal government, three communities (Flemish, French-speaking Walloon and a small German community) and three regions: Flanders, Wallonia and Brussels. In total, there are five regional governments (the Flemish community and region are merged) and one federal one, which makes decisions on behalf of the country, but cannot overrule those made at the regional level in matters such as education or culture, which leads to multiple political paralysis. Furthermore, depending on where they live, Belgians can only vote for certain parties, depending on the language: in Dutch Flanders, you can only vote for Dutch parties, while in Wallonia only for French-speakers. This leads to a duplication of the majority of parties – for example, the Walloon Socialist Party and the Flemish Vooruit – although they do not necessarily share the same program or ideology.
A complex organizational chart that means that no one expects the new government to be known soon. Belgium holds the world record – formalized by the Guinness Book of Records – for days without a government, the 541 that passed between the elections in June 2010 and December 6, 2011, the day the socialist Elio Di Rupo became in prime minister. It almost beat itself after the 2019 elections, when 493 days passed—and the outbreak of a pandemic—until the current De Croo government was formed, at the cost of leaving out N-VA, despite being, with 28% of the votes, the party with the most votes on that occasion.
The long waits do not seem, however, to make too much of a dent in Belgians accustomed to these ups and downs. When Pedro Sánchez announced last year the advancement of the general elections to July 23 and criticism multiplied for coinciding with the current Spanish presidency of the EU, Belgium was bursting with laughter. After all, a diplomatic source ironically stated, the country has rarely done as well as in periods without a formal government.
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