War, nuclear threats, and the influence of social networks on politics (as enemies of democracy), are elements that destabilize the tranquility of human beings around the world.
This 2023 will be full of challenges to overcome as a society, therefore, here we compile the 10 most dangerous risks for the world in this new year, according to the risk consultancy Eurasian Group.
Also read: Brazil: How is the coup attempt similar to the assault on the US Capitol?
What did 2022 leave? The decrease in biosecurity measures to avoid covid-19 that were characteristic since 2020, a Russia weakened in the face of a war that it was more difficult than expected, in contrast, with a European Union stronger than everjust like him strengthening of the G7 and NATO.
As for the political, the power of USA It remains without international rivals.
For its part, from within the country, the world was able to see how attacks on democracy were defeated at the polls (US politicians who delegitimized democracy in their country lost their careers), while Donald Trump reached his weakest moment since he was elected president.
But, the attacks and delegitimizations of democracy are getting stronger, this, added to the looming geopolitical recession, allows the Eurasia group to propose that this 2023 will be one of the most dangerous in terms of risk in the last 25 years. .
Next, the risks.
1. The dangerous position of Russia
A Russia Humiliated by a war that got out of hand would make it go from being one more player in the world economy to the most dangerous state of arrogance in terms of security in Europe and the United States.
During 2022 the Kremlin continued the war in Ukraine despite warnings and confrontation from Nato.
Now Russia cannot look back and is faced with a Ukraine that is not willing to relent until all the Kremlin troops leave its territory and with the support of the West that managed to overcome the fuel crisis that Russia had hoped to dominate.
2. Xi Jinping’s ultimate power
Chinese President Xi Jinping achieved in October, after the Congress party, a power not seen since Mao Zedong led the country.
The top Chinese ruler filled Congress with his closest allies, this allows him to execute his political agenda freely, without controls by other powers, or voices that question his actions or points of view.
This means that Xi Jinping also has no opponents to point out and question his mistakes, which represents a high risk due to the possibility of making arbitrary and volatile decisions, so uncertainty will mark China and this will ultimately be a huge challenge. world.
3. Weapons of mass disruption
the country has become the main exporter of tools that undermine democracy
“When the Berlin Wall fell, the United States was the largest exporter of democracy in the world.
But now, the country has become the main exporter of tools that weaken democracy, not intentionally, but as a consequence of its business model”, the report explains.
Since the beginnings of technological innovation, which mostly took part in the United States, it has taken a course of liberating force, however, these freedoms as a result of technological advances in artificial intelligence will generate social trust to empower authoritarian leaders, will attack democracy and affect the market as well as business.
There are already examples of how politicians like Donald Trump, Jair Bolsonaro and Viktor Orbán have manipulated their voters with disinformation through internet platforms to win elections.
The possibility of cheaply creating armies of bots that look like real humans, conspiracy theories and fake news that generate polarization and give way to extremism is within the reach of great leaders and its consequences are already seen in events such as the attack to the US Capitol in 2020 or the seizure of the buildings of the three powers in Brazil at the beginning of this year.
The irony is that the United States has generated a field of opportunities with representative democracy, free markets and an open society, to generate platforms that in extreme cases have come to promote the opposite.
4. The shock waves of inflation
The global inflationary shock began in the United States in 2021 and impacted the entire world by 2022, it will have economic and political repercussions in 2023. It is estimated that it is the main cause of the recession in the world and will negatively affect financial tensions, as well as it will also increase social discontent and political instability.
The causes of inflation are concentrated in the covid 19 pandemic, which required governments to enter fiscal deficit, as well as the rupture of world supply. Also Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Western sanctions that limited the supply of energy, food and fertilizers.
5. Iran in the corner
The death of the young woman Mahsa Amani at the hands of the morality police has unleashed a whole social crisis in Iran that has left more than 500 dead in protests against the government that have destabilized politics, the economy and, of course, the social tranquility in the country.
This, added to the intensification of Tehran’s nuclear program, the absolute lack of interest in reviving the nuclear agreement and the support for Russia in its invasion of Ukraine, Iran has declared that it will confront the West by defining a clear side for the Islamic republic.
The regime is in an internal and external battle to stay in control, with low chances of falling, but with a large majority of Iranians against it. These problems may open the door for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard to take control, leading Iran to a military dictatorship, with a more aggressive policy towards the region.
6. Energy crisis
Energy consumers, particularly in Europe, breathe a sigh of relief that the energy crisis that Russia sought to generate in Europe did not come true and gas prices have fallen considerably despite their high peaks in 2022.
However, although the energy crisis did not come true and the forecasts are mostly optimistic for this year, the situation in geopolitical, economic and production issues have generated tension in the markets that have not yet recovered and that remain volatile against to how politics affects the production and supply of energy.
The aforementioned will cause prices to rise for the second half of 2023, as well as increase the tax burden for consumer economies and large consumers, generating tensions between the West and the developing world.
7. Global development paused
The last two generations of humanity have experienced a period of unprecedented expansion, technological and industrial advancement, and globalization. However, this process has been reversed in the last three years of hard blows to development, including due to the pandemic caused by the covid-19, the war between Russia and Ukraine and the increase in inflation.
The United Nations estimates that five years of progress in human development have been lost since the blow caused by covid-19, 90 percent of countries reported a setback in development from 2020 and 2021 and in 2023 it is estimated that thousands of millions of people become more vulnerable in economic, security and political matters.
8. United States, divided and polarized
On the positive side, the 2022 US midterm elections rejected all candidates who denied the legitimacy of President Joe Biden’s victory over Donald Trump.
Therefore, the elected candidates maintain respect for their institutions and for democracy, which has been attacked with lies, conspiracy theories, and false news.
However, the country maintains one of the highest and most dysfunctional polarizations of advanced democracies. This polarization gives more and more strength to the current of delegitimization of government institutions.
9. The boom of Tik Tok and social networks
Generation Z is the first that has not lived without the internet, digital equipment and social networks have connected the whole world, thus achieving a truly globalized generation.
Its main purpose has demonstrated the capabilities of the human being and they have also been an achievement for human development, but this connection has also consolidated a new geopolitical power in the world, capable of organizing and motivating through the internet, to rebuild public policies , make life difficult for multinationals and destabilize politics with the touch of a button.
Social networks have become a fundamental part of different historical events in recent years, both to inform and to influence and define a path for each one of them, among these is the financial crisis of 2008, the Arab spring, the civil war in Syria, Brexit, the election of Trump, the Black Lives Matter movement and #metoo (in these last four social networks played a fundamental role in terms of organizing and motivating the masses), the mass shootings in schools in the United States, the covid-19 pandemic and the war in Russia.
10. The water crisis
This year, water scarcity will become a systematic challenge for nations around the world, the problem is that governments will continue to treat it as a temporary crisis.
This 2022 the reduction of the water level worsened the food crisis in Africa, paralyzed maritime transport, reduced the production of nuclear energy in Europe and caused the closure of different factories in China.
The crisis and the dispute over the use of water will become a normality in 2022, the levels of rivers and seas will drop to a minimum, which would result in companies around the world starting important disputes related to the control of water for their operations and supply chains.
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