Terminal fire in Russia | Drone expert: The drone may have flown from Ukraine to the natural gas terminal

Gulf of Finland on the coast, about 30 kilometers from the Estonian border, in the Russian export port of Ust-Luga, i.e. Laukaansuu, a fire broke out early on Sunday in the natural gas terminal of the gas company Novatek.

According to Novatek, the fire was “caused by an external factor”. According to media reports, observations of drones would have been made in the area, which raised suspicions about Ukraine's involvement in the matter. Ukraine has previously used drones to strike Russian infrastructure as part of its defensive war.

The drones could probably have been launched 900 kilometers from northern Ukraine, an drone expert estimates Stan Reimann.

“There, Russia's electronic jamming and air defense capabilities seem to be zero. It also seems that the air surveillance of the St. Petersburg area is made for targets the size of an airplane. There is not the same kind of observation with the naked eye as is planned in Estonia and Finland,” says Reimann.

Reimann is the former head of Estonian military intelligence, who moved to companies developing unmanned military technology in 2012. Nowadays, he works as an export promoter for various drone companies, at least in Ukraine and Saudi Arabia. He graduated from the Finnish National Defense University with a specialization in air defense.

from Ukraine To the coast of the Gulf of Finland, the plane would have had to fly 900–1,000 kilometers and change direction sometimes.

“This is not a problem,” says Reimann.

Reimann estimated that the possible drones moved at a speed of about 120 kilometers per hour. So they would have traveled in Russian airspace for about eight hours. For a distance of one thousand kilometers, Reimann estimates that even a large-engine airplane consumes a maximum of 30 liters or 23.4 kilograms of fuel.

The independent Russian media Meduza reported earlier, referring to several Telegram channels, that the sound of drones could have been heard in the city of Jaama, or Kingisepp in Russian, before the explosion.

From there, the planes should have turned slightly northwest towards Laukaansuu before hitting the natural gas terminal.

“You can see them as well as hear them, because they try to fly as low as possible,” says Reimann.

Therefore, it is possible that ordinary townspeople noticed what could have been missed by air surveillance.

According to Reimann, airplanes often do not travel as the crow flies, but instead try to go around cities to avoid human casualties. In addition, according to him, they try to avoid areas with air surveillance.

The more likely it is that several planes are launched at once, so that hitting the target is more likely. The trip can be interrupted by technical faults. The more airplanes there are, the harder it is to combat them, says Reimann.

The drones were built at the Army's drone manufacturing workshop in Mykolaiv, Ukraine, in October 2022. Picture: Antti Aimo-Koivisto / Magazine photo

When the west has not been able to provide enough long-range missiles, especially in the last year, Ukraine has invested in self-destructing kamikaze planes. If the price of the missile is three to five million, the drone costs between 100,000 and 300,000 euros, Reimann compares.

Russia has bombed Ukraine's infrastructure in various ways in recent weeks.

“Ukraine must strive to weaken Russia's military capability,” says Reimann.

Not at all by noon on Sunday, there had been no speculation that the drone could have been launched closer to Russia.

“Yes, the Russians know who launched it. It's a different matter how they want to use it politically,” says Reimann.

In the Ukrainian media, the fire in the Gulf of Finland had not been connected to Ukraine's military activities by early Sunday evening. By early evening, neither Ukraine nor Russia had commented on events or observations of possible drones in the area.

Laukaansuu is located approximately 170 kilometers from Hamina.