In December last year, when Israel’s war against the Hamas terrorist group in the Gaza Strip was already two months old, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told a meeting of the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee that Israel faced threats on seven fronts: Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran.
Iranian forces or groups backed by Tehran have exchanged strikes with Israel or its allies (such as the United States, which has responded to militia attacks on its bases in Iraq) in all of these theaters of operations since October 2023.
In most cases, the attacks were targeted bombings, but two scenarios escalated into ground confrontations (Gaza and the West Bank) and a third, exchanges of bombings between Israel and the Shiite terrorist group Hezbollah on the Lebanese border, could soon follow suit.
On Tuesday (17), the Lebanese government and Hezbollah blamed Israel for pager explosions in several regions of Lebanon that left several dead and injured.
Before that, Benjamin Netanyahu’s government had been talking for weeks about a ground incursion to end hostilities with the Shiite group, which have already caused hundreds of deaths and the displacement of approximately 112,000 people on the Lebanese side of the border and almost 100,000 on the Israeli side since last year, in the worst conflict between these two sides since the 2006 war.
The Israeli press reported on Monday (16) that Netanyahu is even considering firing Gallant due to the minister’s resistance to a large-scale offensive in southern Lebanon at this time.
Tensions had already risen over the weekend with a missile attack carried out by Yemen’s Houthi rebels on Israeli territory, the first such attack carried out by the group against Israel – Netanyahu vowed that the attackers would pay a “heavy price”.
The question remains: if Israel goes to ground war on three or more fronts, will it be able to emerge victorious?
The first question is how many troops would be needed for these incursions. After winning the ultra-Orthodox recruitment battle, Israel is reportedly recruiting African asylum seekers for the war in Gaza in exchange for permanent residency in the country, according to a report published over the weekend by the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, an indication that it is preparing for long-term conflict.
A second question is the capacity of weapons and structure to sustain an expanded war. Israel is facing increasing pressure from its allies regarding the offensive in Gaza, with Canada and the United Kingdom suspending arms shipments, which the United States also did on time with a shipment of offensive weapons.
The third issue is economic. Yannay Spitzer, of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem’s economics department, told The Jerusalem Post that Israel could need to spend about 10 percent of its GDP on defense. “That represents a substantial loss of wealth, which will have to be paid for in one way or another,” he said.
The fourth question is related to the third: would the Israeli population, which is pressuring Netanyahu for negotiations to free hostages in Gaza (a ceasefire is still far from being achieved), support the expansion of the war to more fronts?
“Democracies have more difficulty maintaining their public opinions favorable to conflicts when these begin to impact their lives directly and there is no solution in sight in the short term,” said retired major and risk analyst Nelson Ricardo Fernandes Silva, in an interview with People’s Gazette.
“To wage a war, you need energy, food, weapons and people. Israel has a population of around 9 million, which does not allow for a war that lasts for a long time and with many casualties, unless it hires foreigners to join its forces,” he argued.
“Every Israeli citizen fighting is one less Israeli producing wealth and [mais um] increasing the cost of the state payroll, and [gera-se] more pressure on public opinion to shorten the conflict,” said Silva.
As for Israeli allies, the analyst considered that the United States “loses interest in conflicts as they last indefinitely” and that external support may vary according to the public opinion of the supporting countries and the ideological alignment of their leaders, but pointed out that Israel would be able to produce weapons on its own in sufficient quantities to maintain the war.
“This situation could last for years and at a huge cost, as seen in Afghanistan. I believe that Israel is taking into account the level of external support and international public opinion in this decision-making process,” said Silva.
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