The year began with increasingly strong speculation of an imminent war on the Korean peninsula, the region in which the two Koreas meet. The new military movements, combined with the countries' fiery speeches, gave a new tone to the already deteriorating relationship between Pyongyang and Seoul, which increases the possibility of a regional conflict.
On the one hand, the North Korean dictatorship, led by Kim Jong-un, dissolved the peninsula's cooperation and reunification agencies and threatened to start a war if its southern neighbor violates any inch of its territory. Furthermore, this week, the regime's leader also called for a revision of the Constitution to define South Korea as the “number one hostile country”, in yet another sign of deep disagreement between the sides.
In his long speech in Parliament, Kim stated that Washington's policies, supported by Seoul to “end” his country, leave no room for maneuver other than preparation for war, the state news agency reported. KCNA. “It is important to take into account the issue of occupying, suppressing and completely recovering the Republic of Korea (official name of South Korea),” said the dictator.
On the other side of the peninsula, Seoul has also been mobilizing with joint military training with the US and Japan to contain the constant threat from Kim's Army, especially in recent months, marked by artillery attacks near the border, meetings with the Russian government and the discovery, by South Korean and American intelligence, of weapons being sent from Pyongyang to the Middle East and Ukraine.
A strict measure announced by South Korea came on Wednesday (17), when the country imposed sanctions against 11 ships and five individuals and legal entities involved in the illegal transport of oil and other goods by ship to North Korea.
This stance against the North's maritime activities is part of the South's government's efforts to discourage the sending of resources to the neighboring country and its obtaining of financing, aiming to slow the development of its nuclear and missile program.
The Korean peninsula was not always divided into two countries. Until Japan's defeat by the Soviet Union in 1945, the two sides formed a single nation, following the same values and culture. With the end of the world war, the Soviets occupied half of the peninsula, to the north, while the United States took the southern half, each side with its own ideology.
The friction between the two territories became increasingly intense, leading the North to implement the communist regime on a large scale, while the South continued with the capitalist system. This led to the creation of two autonomous states.
In 1950, North Korea invaded the South, supported by the Soviet Union and China, with the aim of reuniting the country and establishing communism throughout its territory. The mission was almost successful, until South Korea, with the support of the USA and allies, and under the protection of the UN, reacted to the invasion and launched a counter-offensive that changed the scenario of the war, occupying a large part of the peninsula.
In July 1951, the sides reached an impasse that forced them to begin peace talks in the border town of Kaesong, North Korea. China and the Soviet Union proposed drawing the border at the 38th parallel, while the USA and its allies proposed establishing it on the front line of the conflict, dozens of kilometers to the North.
Again, the lack of agreement between the parties led to a stagnation in negotiations until 1953, when a temporary ceasefire was signed. The armistice was also responsible for the creation of a demilitarized zone along the 38th parallel.
Because it is temporary, technically the two countries are still at war, even with the interruption of direct confrontations for decades. In 2018, then South Korean president Moon Jae-in met with dictator Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang, however the meeting was marked by little dialogue, without final solutions to the conflict.
Last year, countries increased disagreements and opened space for new speculation about the return of war, after 70 years.
The agency AFP, analyst at the Korean Institute for National Reunification, Hong Min, stated that the main indication that the North wants the return of armed conflict is the legislative change proposed in Parliament. “The classification of the South as the North's 'main enemy' is not just rhetoric: words can lead to action,” he warned.
Another expert, Choi Gi-il, professor of Military Studies at Sangji University, in South Korea, considers that the two countries are now “in the greatest possibility of being drawn into an armed conflict”.
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