The 'status quo' in a region where there is no shortage of tensions. The geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific. The shadow of China. Relations with the USA. Microchips, semiconductors. Next Saturday in Taiwan we will vote for the presidential elections, the eighth in the history of the island, and for the renewal of the Legislative Yuan. There is much more at stake than the succession to President Tsai Ing-wen and a seat in the single-chamber parliament. The results, the Economist wrote, could clarify whether politics can still resolve the “Taiwan question” or whether only force can force the island to submit to the rule of the Chinese Communist Party.
There China “intensifies the military threat” and “tries to convey the idea that these elections are a choice between war and slowing growth”in the event of the triumph of William Lai and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), “or peace and prosperity”, in the event of the victory of Hou Yu-Ih and the Kuomintang (KMT), said in a recent interview with Le Monde the Taiwan's Foreign Minister, Joseph Wu, denouncing “increasingly sophisticated Chinese interference”.
Beijing considers Taiwan, a de facto independent island with 23 million inhabitants and a handful of allies in the world, a “rebel province” to be “reunified”. The Dragon's assertiveness is increasingly worrying. Taipei claims to be a “democratic country”, the “constitutional system”, denounces “intimidation” and “pressure” from Beijing. “Reunification” is “inevitable”, remarked in his last public speech the Chinese leader Xi Jinping, since 2012 general secretary of the Communist Party, a party-state with more than 98 million members, at the top of the Central Military Commission and president of China since 2013, who concentrates on his person as many powers as any leader before him had ever had in the People's Republic.
32 years have passed since 1992, when Taipei and Beijing agreed on the existence of “one China” (the so-called '1992 Consensus'), it is in this context that for Beijing Joseph Wu, minister of the DPP – the party of President Tsai Ing-wen who cannot vote for a third term – he is an “irreducible supporter of independence”. The accusation made against the People's Republic is of a “hybrid war, a cognitive war made of disinformation, cyber attacks and incursions as well as economic pressure”.
In recent months ChinaPolitico summarized after Xi's latest speech, has increasingly toughened its rhetoric on Taiwan and stepped up military pressure on the island with military exercises carried out on a regular basis. He did not fail to show his anger, the kind that is always unleashed by the military aid assured to Taiwan by the USA (over the last 50 years, Sino-American relations have been based on the principle of “one China” and the United States is committed to support the defense capabilities of old Formosa).
Politico's findings are in line with the words of a high-level Taiwanese security official quoted by CNN who at the beginning of December denounced an increase in Beijing's interference in the upcoming elections. The American network source spoke of a meeting exhorting officials to be more effective and discreet in their work, a meeting to coordinate the activities of different departments with the aim – the source said on the basis of information gathered by Taiwanese intelligence – to influence the vote. The name of Wang Huning, the ideologue of the Chinese Communist Party and responsible for Taiwan Affairs, was mentioned.
As evidence of the climate we breathe there was the case of Mayday, the 'Beatles of Asia'. Beijing was forced in recent days to deny press reports according to which there were political motivations behind an investigation involving the Taiwanese band with millions of fans in the People's Republic, accused of having used playback ('lip syncing' is prohibited in front of the paying public) during the last concerts in Shanghai. Beijing denies having asked them to make comments in favor of the policies of the Asian giant (“one China”) and that it launched an investigation – to put pressure on the group – as soon as it received the refusal. Not only. The authorities of the Asian giant would have coordinated with the state media to foment the debate on the band's concerts. For the Taiwan Affairs Bureau it is just “fake news”. In Taiwan they have denounced a 'tactic' that has reached an unprecedented level.
Thus, Wu summarized to Le Monde, the 'status quo' is a “tacit agreement between Taiwan and China that the two sides have respected over the years”, but which “the Chinese no longer respect”. And “war is synonymous with disaster for Taiwan, but also for China” and “for the whole world”. And the elections on the island represent, observers say, the first real unknown of 2024 for the Biden Administration in its aim of stabilizing relations with the Asian giant. Because, Chinese experts tell the South China Morning Post, Beijing's probable response to a DPP victory could trigger a chain of events that risks further damaging even the slightest trust between the US and China.
Three candidates for the presidency, who are Tsai's possible 'heirs'
Next Saturday the de facto independent island that China wants to “reunify” will elect a new president. In the running to succeed President Tsai are her deputy from the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP, the 'green' camp of the forces closest to this party), Lai Ching-te (William Lai), in the lead – but barely – in the polls, followed by a former police chief, Hou Yu-ih, who is running for the Kuomintang (KMT, the 'blue' camp), and a former mayor, Ko Wen-je, from the People's Party (TTP). 19.3 million voters are called to the polls.
WILLIAM LAI (Dpp) – Vice President of Taiwan since 2020, 64 years old, defends the island's independence and has a history of medical studies completed at Harvard. Premier for two years from 2017, he had previously been mayor of Tainan for seven years. Since January 2023 he has been at the helm of the DPP, which – the Guardian highlights – does not however formally support a declaration of independence. The Global Times, a nationalist Chinese tabloid, describes him as a “separatist”. For Beijing he is a “provocateur”. During the election campaign, he repeated that Taiwan hopes to “be a friend” of China and said he was open to dialogue with the Dragon but also warned that “the international community has realized the threat that China represents to Taiwan and the world”. HSIAO BI-KHIM is the 52-year-old 'running mate' and, the BBC notes, seems to make the Dragon even more angry than him. She was born in Japan, to parents from Taiwan and the United States, and came to the United States as a teenager. She returned to the island, at just 26 years old she was already the DPP's point of reference for international affairs. For three years, starting in 2020, she was Taiwan's representative in the US, the first woman to hold the position. She describes herself as a 'cat worrior', a personal response to the 'wolf warriors' of Chinese diplomacy, because – she told the Economist – “cats manage to stay in balance in very delicate places” and “they don't you can force them to do things they don't want.” For Beijing she is a “diehard separatist for Taiwanese independence”. In 2022 and last year, the Guardian recalls, she ended up in the crosshairs of Chinese sanctions and she and her family cannot set foot on the territory of mainland China, nor in Hong Kong or Macao.
HOU YU-IH (KMT) – Former police chief and then mayor of New Taipei, 66 years old, is very popular and for this reason he was chosen by the KMT. Against Taiwan's independence, during the election campaign – as highlighted by the BBC – he avoided expressing his opinion on China. And he has attracted quite a bit of criticism. Running for vice president is JAW SHAW-KONG, a 73-year-old political commentator and one-time leader of the New Party, a longtime supporter of the “reunification” of Taiwan with China although he recently said he would not work for it if he were elected. Beijing 'hopes' for their victory.
KO WEN-JE (TPP) – A doctor who put aside his lab coat for politics (like William Lai), the 64-year-old leader of the People's Party (TPP) presents himself as the “third choice” and, the BBC highlights, has proven popular among young people voters. Former mayor of Taipei, he put together the TPP in 2019 as an alternative to the DPP and the KMT. His name became known partly in association with the Sunflower Movement (born on a student initiative in 2014 to block an agreement with China) and on foreign policy and national security issues, some observers point out, his positions were often in conflict with each other and it is not clear what his foreign policy would look like in reality. Nicknamed 'Professor Ko', he appears on the ticket with the 45-year-old congresswoman CYNTHIA WU, born and raised in the USA with a past as an analyst at Merrill Lynch in London and then returned to Taipei to work in the family company Shin Kong Group.
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