An ” important ” hit yes, but not a significant one, ” it will not lead to the end of the group ”. Because as its history shows, the Islamic State (Isis) has survived the death of ” charismatic leaders ” as Abu Musab al-Zarqawi could have been first and then Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. It will therefore also resist the killing of its latest leader, Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurashi, who “was certainly not a fundamental figure” and “was criticized by many in jihadist circles for lack of charisma and legitimacy” ‘. Lorenzo Vidino, director of the Program on Extremism at George Washington University, explains this to Adnkronos, convinced that ” the phase of relative growth and rebirth of ISIS that we have witnessed in recent weeks will continue ”.
Vidino cites a “serious operations on the Syrian Iraqi territory”, with “ambushes and attacks on the army” of Baghdad, but above all the “assault on the Hasakah prison” in the north east of Syria stands out. hundreds of victims. However, it is “a very weakened group compared to ten years ago”, but with “signs of recovery” which, according to Vidino, “will continue” because that of al-Qurashi “does not seem like a loss in able to change the group ”.
‘difficult if not impossible to make a name for his successor’
In short, ” ISIS has existed for twenty years, it has lost many leaders and if it went ahead without al-Baghdadi it will do so even now without al-Qurashi. It will just be about finding someone to replace him. ” It will be difficult, if not ‘impossible’ to make a name, ” it will depend on internal dynamics ”, even if ” it will not be easy to find leaders like al-Baghdadi or Zarqawi ”. In any case, it will be “necessary that he belongs to the internal circle of leadership, that he is part of the core of the group”, but it would also be necessary to have a leader who “knows how to attract more support from the outside as al-Baghdadi did. And as al-Qurashi did not do ” who ” has never made a video, has never been seen in recent years ”.
Given that “it remains a Syrian-Iraqi traction group”, it is “difficult for it to be an external party”. Because even if “the group is increasingly internationalized”, at the level of “leaders they are Arabs, and mostly Syrians and Iraqis”. Who after today’s raid will have to remember to ” always look over your shoulder ”.
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