An official Swedish report on the advantages of joining NATO paved the way this Friday for a candidacy of the Nordic countrywhich can be completed in a matter of days, just like the one in Finland.
The report, agreed by the Swedish Social Democratic Government and the majority of parliamentary forces, concluded that a hypothetical entry into NATO would improve the security of Sweden and its environment and would have a deterrent effect on possible war conflicts in northern Europe.
(Also read: Is a Russian invasion of Finland likely due to NATO membership?)
The text, which analyzes the new situation generated by the war in Ukraine but does not take a position on accession, was presented one day after the Finnish president and prime minister decided to support their country’s entry into NATO and faced with an end week in which Sweden is expected to take a similar step.
The document considers that the condition of Sweden as an ally of the Alliance does not give it guarantees of help in the event of an attack, since article 5 on collective defense only affects member countries.
Nor does he see room to strengthen cooperation with the Alliance, nor does he believe it is realistic to think of deepening bilateral alliances outside of it due to a lack of political will to create a collective defense within the European Union (EU).
Remaining outside NATO would also require higher defense spending than Alliance members.
(Also read: Zelenski: proposes meeting with Putin and says that Ukraine wants peace)
Although Moscow threatened Finland and Sweden with “consequences” in case of accession, the report considers an armed attack highly unlikely, but acknowledges that Russian “provocations” and “retaliation” “cannot be ruled out”.
It also highlights that Sweden could suffer cyber attacks or provocations such as violations of its airspace or its waters by Russia, especially in the transition period until all member countries ratify a hypothetical Swedish request, the report acknowledges.
“The main consequence of an eventual entry into NATO would be that Sweden would be part of its collective security“, Foreign Minister Ann Linde said at a press conference, admitting the influence of the Finnish decision on her country.
Criticism of environmentalists and socialists
The conclusions of the report result from the consensus between six of the eight parliamentary forcesexcept for the environmentalists and the Socialist Left Party, who nevertheless agree with the rest in condemning the Russian military intervention in Ukraine.
“I think an analysis of the risks of Sweden’s entry is missing. It would be the biggest change in Swedish security policy in a long time. Non-alignment has been very important and has served Sweden for many years,” he said during the presentation. Håkan Svenneling, socialist spokesperson.
The Socialists were the ones who proposed a few weeks ago to convene a referendum on income, a possibility rejected by the Government as it considered the issue too complex.
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I believe that an analysis of the risks involved in Sweden’s entry is lacking. It would be the biggest change in Swedish security policy in a long time
Both parties, external allies of the Government, also criticized the speed with which the process has been developed, in which the deadlines have been shortening significantly and in which Sweden took a turn a month and a half ago, pushed by the speed with that neighboring Finland has acted.
The Social Democratic Party, which heads a minority government alone, approved at its last congress in November to maintain the Swedish non-alignment, which has been a hallmark of its policy for decades.
Before the war in Ukraine, the debate in Finland and Sweden about joining NATO was deadlocked.
In fact, at the beginning of March, shortly after the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, on February 24, the Prime Minister, Magdalena Andersson, still maintained that joining the Alliance would worsen security in the area.
(You can read: Finland hopes for a quick accession to NATO, and Russia threatens retaliation)
But everything changed with the Russian invasion. Both countries now seek better military protection.
Half of Swedes are in favor of membership, according to the latest polls. And two-thirds would be in favor if Finland joins as well. More than three-quarters of Finns want NATO protection.
Possible accession to NATO
Linde and his Finnish colleague will participate this weekend in Berlin in an informal meeting of NATO foreign ministers
The Social Democrats called for Sunday an extraordinary meeting of their leadership with which the internal discussion process culminates and at the end of which they will make public their position on the Alliance, which is expected to be favorable to entry.
Several social democratic federations have criticized the lack of debate and maintain their opposition to joining NATO, but weighty voices have publicly defended entry and the result seems to be a foregone conclusion.
Parliament will host a special debate on Monday on the occasion of the new security report, in which Andersson herself will participate and which could be followed by an extraordinary meeting of the Government and the announcement of the sending of a formal application for membership, a day before Finnish President Sauli Niinistö arrives in Sweden on an official visit.
(Also: Ukraine: more than six million refugees from the war, according to the UN)
Putin analyzes consequences of possible accession
Moscow, for its part, threatened this Thursday with “military and technical” measures in the event of Finland’s accession.
Russia’s Security Council, a body chaired by President Vladimir Putin, discussed the likely Swedish and Finnish bids and “possible threats to Russia’s security arising from them,” according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov.
Seeing the two hitherto non-aligned countries join NATO, and in particular Finland with its 1,300-kilometre border with Russia, would be a strategic and symbolic setback for Moscow, according to Western analysts.
As for Russian retaliation, “it is almost certain that we will have hybrid attacks, such as cyber attacks,” said Robert Dalsjö, a researcher at the Swedish Defense Research Institute (FOI).
“But they are busy with the Ukraine … So I doubt very much that they will come here to kill someone.”
Biden backs possible accession
In addition, the president of the United States, Joe Biden, spoke this Friday with the Swedish prime minister, Magdalena Andersson, and the president of Finland, Sauli Niinistö, for just over half an hour, the White House said.
The Finnish president said on Twitter that he had “explained Finland’s next steps to join” the transatlantic defense organization, adding that his country was “deeply grateful to the United States for its much-needed support.”
White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki further reiterated that Washington would support a request for membership from Sweden and Finland.
“Even without being members of NATO, our militaries have been working together for years. We are sure to find ways … to address any concerns these two countries may have” in the run-up to official admission, he said. the spokesperson for the US presidency.
AFP and EFE
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