If the Federal Chancellor were directly eligible, Armin Laschet would not have much to laugh about. Olaf Scholz now enjoys more trust among the population.
Berlin – SPD Chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz has overtaken Union candidate Armin Laschet (CDU) according to a recent poll in the electorate. If the Chancellor in Germany could be directly elected, 20 percent of the participants in an online survey carried out by the opinion research institute YouGov between July 23 and 26 would now choose the current Minister of Finance, Scholz. That is at least five percentage points more than in May. 15 percent would elect NRW Prime Minister Laschet, 13 percent would vote for the Green Party and Chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock.
Scholz and Laschet have thus swapped positions. A month earlier, the Union candidate Laschet had been at 21 percent, his competitor from the SPD at 16 percent. Baerbock fell 2 percentage points. One possible explanation is the criticism of Laschet after the devastating floods in North Rhine-Westphalia in mid-July. During the Federal President’s speech on the consequences of the disaster, Laschet was photographed joking with other CDU politicians.
Poll: Laschet falls in second place, Union is losing favor with the voters
But the next chancellor will not be directly elected in Germany. Instead, parties will be on the ballot for the federal election on September 26th, some of which will negotiate the formation of a coalition after the election. The governing parties usually hold a majority of the seats in the Bundestag. As a rule, the strongest party also provides the head of government.
In the party ranking, the Union is still in first place. However, voters have been losing their trust in them lately. In the answer to the question “If there was a general election next Sunday, which party would you vote?” You lost two points compared to the previous month. The result of the YouGov survey gives:
- CDU / CDU: 28 percent (minus 2)
- SPD: 16 percent (plus 1)
- Greens: 16 percent (minus 3)
- FDP: 12 percent (plus 1)
- AfD: 12 percent (plus 1)
- The left: 8 percent (plus 1)
The SPD was able to gain one point and is now level with the Greens, who have lost three percentage points. The FDP and AfD each received one point, as did the left.
After a flood disaster: environmental and climate protection is becoming increasingly important
Although the Greens lost votes in the YouGov poll, environmental and climate protection is still the most important issue for Germans. As early as May and June, 18 percent agreed that politicians should deal primarily with this problem. After the flood disaster in July, this value rose rapidly to 24 percent. The topic of pensions and old-age provision reached 12 percent, immigration and asylum as well as the gap between rich and poor each reached 10 percent. Health care will reach 9 percent in July 2021. At the beginning of 2021 it was 16 percent.
YouGov survey: 2104 people surveyed
Election polls are generally always fraught with uncertainty. Among other things, declining party ties and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it more difficult for opinion research institutes to weight the data collected. YouGov states a statistical error tolerance of 2.1 percentage points (with a proportion of 30 percent) and 1.0 points (with a proportion of 5 percent). This margin of error relates to the question of which party one would vote for on Sunday because the sample size is smaller and therefore the uncertainty is greater. In principle, surveys only reflect opinions at the time of the survey and are not predictions of the outcome of the election.
A total of 2104 people took part in YouGov’s online survey between July 23rd and 36th. The results were weighted and are representative for German voters aged 18 and over. Of the 2104 respondents, 1748 answered the Sunday question, 2068 respondents commented on a fictitious direct election of the Chancellor. (ee / dpa)
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