Armin Laschets Union leaves the current survey feathers, SPD and Greens are now on par. New coalitions are conceivable.
Berlin – “If there were elections to the Bundestag on Sunday …” – before important elections, the German election research institutes regularly ask about the political preferences of Germans. Such surveys are of course to be viewed with caution, as the actual election shows a considerable difference in the distribution of votes compared to the forecast. But these surveys by INSA, Infratest dimap or YouGov can be a good starting point.
With the current INSA opinion trend that the picture-Newspaper commissioned, there is one loser in particular: the Union. Compared with the previous week’s poll, Chancellor candidate Armin Laschet’s party lost two percentage points and is now 27 percent. The SPD around Olaf Scholz is 17.5 percent, an increase of one percentage point compared to the previous week.
Survey before the federal election: Greens on par with the SPD
According to the INSA opinion trend from July 26th, the Greens around Chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock are 17.5 percent and lose half a percentage point. FDP (13 percent; plus 1 percentage point) and AfD (12 percent; plus 0.5 percentage points) were able to win slightly. The left is unchanged at 6 percent.
- CDU / CSU: 27 percent (-2)
- SPD: 17.5 percent: (+1)
- AfD: 12 percent (+0.5)
- FDP: 13 percent (+1)
- Left: 6 percent (± 0)
- Greens: 17.5 percent (-0.5)
- Others: 7 percent (± 0)
For possible coalitions, this result would mean: Neither for black-green nor for black-red would that be enough. Both coalitions would not get a majority with 44.5 percent. A coalition of Union, SPD and FDP with 57.5 percent and a coalition of Union, Greens and FDP with 57.5 percent would have partly clear majorities. A coalition of the Union, SPD and Greens would even get 62 percent. A parliamentary majority should also reach a traffic light coalition of the Greens, SPD and FDP, it would come to 48 percent.
Especially the Prime Minister of North Rhine-Westphalia, Armin Laschet, comes under political pressure after the flood disaster in his state. In another INSA survey for the picture the respondents rated his actions as worst. 57 percent saw his appearance as negative, 23 percent as positive. One reason will probably be Laschet’s laughter during a speech by Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier. (fmü)
List of rubric lists: © Malte Ossowski / SVEN SIMON / IMAGO