Armin Laschet is getting it from all sides at the moment. A new survey should hurt the CDU boss in many ways. On the other hand, Markus Söder can feel confirmed.
Munich – For the Union and especially its candidate for Chancellor Armin Laschet, even two weeks after the general election, looks at new polls are anything but subject to amusement tax. The impression that the previous ruling party can be happy that the crosses have already been made is solidifying.
Since then, not much has happened to the biggest loser in the election. As before, at least the CDU keeps the option open to lead a Jamaica coalition. Laschet is ready to give up the party leadership. But it still does not seem nearly clear to whom and how the succession should be regulated at all. With Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer and Peter Altmaier, two cabinet members are leaving the Bundestag voluntarily. At least there is a hint of a new beginning around this decision.
Survey bang for Laschet: Union closer to the Greens than to the SPD
But in the newest RTL / ntv-Trend barometer, the Union continues to weaken, especially since the majority of those questioned see a different personnel as much more urgent. Only 20 percent – one in five – of the 2503 participants would vote for the CDU or CSU. With 26 percent, the SPD would even come off a tad better than in the election.
The third strongest force would be the Greens with 16 percent, followed by the likely coalition partner FDP with 14 percent. The AfD, for which federal spokesman Jörg Meuthen no longer wants to run for election, received nine percent of the vote – like the Union, it did better in the election. Five percent would place their cross on the left. One in ten would choose a different party.
Survey bang for Laschet: majority sees responsibility for election results with CDU boss
But back to the new whipping boy, the Union. Here the loser among the losers is still the front man. 51 percent of the electorate blame Laschet for the poor appearance and the low level of trust in the population. Among CDU voters, the proportion is even 57 percent, among CSU supporters a devastating 83 percent agree.
After all, 48 percent of all eligible voters suspect the main reason for the poor performance in the general dissatisfaction with the Union and its long term in office. This is the opinion of 26 percent of the CDU and 23 percent of the CSU voters. 40 percent of those eligible to vote assume a general desire for a change of policy; among CDU and CSU supporters, the proportion is 23 percent each.
Only 19 percent believe that the Union’s program is responsible, and that of the voters of both parties is only seven percent each. 14 percent put the blame on Markus Söder, Bavaria’s Prime Minister target every tenth CDU supporter and two percent of CSU friends.
Video: Union wants to regulate Laschet’s succession at a special party conference by the beginning of 2022
Survey bang for Laschet: Two out of three eligible voters want to resign immediately
Laschet also has to put up with other questions. 66 percent support his immediate resignation from the CDU chairmanship. In contrast, only 24 percent think it is right that he remains in office for the time being. Here the proportion of 40 percent of the voters of his party is significantly larger, of the CSU supporters only 23 percent see it that way.
The problem of succession remains. None of the candidates aroused real enthusiasm. Norbert Röttgen received 27 percent of the vote, Friedrich Merz came in second with 19 percent, ahead of Jens Spahn with ten percent. With the remaining 44 percent, none of the trio gets a thumbs up.
Survey bang for Laschet: not even one in ten would vote for him directly
Meanwhile, the preference for chancellor is shifting more and more in favor of Olaf Scholz, who currently 52 percent of those surveyed would vote directly. Laschet would only get eight percent of the vote. If the Union were to switch to Söder, it would be much tighter, here the current Vice Chancellor would be ahead with 37 to 33 percent.
Small consolation for the CSU boss: 59 percent of those eligible to vote assume that the Union would have done better with him as candidate for chancellor. Here, the proportion among CDU supporters is 79 percent, among CSU voters even nine out of ten are of this opinion.
Söder’s criticism of Laschet’s election campaign also met with overwhelming approval. 56 percent think they are entitled, among CDU voters it is 63 percent, among CSU supporters 81 percent.
Survey bang for Laschet: majority wants traffic light coalition – only one in five supports Jamaica alliance
Then there is the question of the most popular government alliance. 55 percent are hoping for a traffic light coalition, which the SPD, Greens and FDP are currently exploring in favor of its implementation. Jamaica gets 20 percent approval, the grand coalition is the best choice for eleven percent.
Among the green supporters, 91 percent are for red-green-yellow and only four percent for black-green-yellow. Even among FDP voters, the traffic light is almost as popular with 37 percent as Jamaica with 40 percent. In other words, the liberals could sell the center-left alliance to their supporters much better than the eco-party could sell the center-right alliance to their voters.
Survey bang for Laschet: With Söder as candidate for chancellor, values for coalitions with Union would be better
Here, too, the gimmick was tried so that the Union could still set up Söder instead of Laschet as a spearhead. In this case, the traffic light would only be with 37 percent to 28 percent approval in front of Jamaica, the GroKo would then be the coalition of the future for 13 percent.
In any case, only seven percent of those eligible to vote would want Laschet to be the chancellor of a Jamaica coalition, and 39 percent would like to see Söder on the throne in Berlin. In this case, twelve percent of the CDU voters would be for the Aachen resident, 59 percent for the Nuremberg resident. The tendency is of course even clearer among the CSU supporters: Only six percent would support Laschet as head of government, but 75 percent would support Söder. (mg)