After a rainy spring, much of the Center-South will have a summer of irregular rains, with dry months alternating with rainy periods. In the Center-North, the Matopiba region (Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia) will also suffer moments of lack of rain in the summer.
The forecasts were released by the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet), which presented, for the first time, the trend of rainfall and temperatures for the next six months across the country. Until now, the agency provided only the weather forecast for each quarter.
Weather projections between November and April were presented. Estimates will be updated monthly and will follow a semi-annual moving average. Next month, forecasts will be released between December and May. In January, estimates will run to June.
According to Inmet, November has been characterized by a lot of rain in the Center-North and rains below the average for the South Region. Projections point to the maintenance of this pattern until the end of the month. In December, the forecast indicates rain between 10 millimeters and 50 millimeters below the average in Rio Grande do Sul, west of Santa Catarina, north of Minas Gerais, Acre, southwest of Amazonas and Matopiba. In other areas, rainfall should be close to or slightly above average.
In January, Inmet forecasts below average rainfall in Goiás, Minas Gerais, the Federal District, Espírito Santo, central Mato Grosso do Sul, south and east of Tocantins, south of Piauí and Bahia (except in the east of the state ). The South may have slightly above average rainfall, as well as the state of São Paulo and the northern range of Brazil.
For February, the model indicates irregular rains in practically the entire central strip and the South Region. Certain areas of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina are expected to have below average rainfall.
In March and April, rains are expected to remain below average in the South. It should also rain less than expected in Mato Grosso do Sul and southern Mato Grosso. Other areas, however, may have above average rainfall, such as Amazonas, Roraima, Pará, Piauí and central and southern Ceará. There is also a trend of higher than normal rainfall in southern Minas Gerais and northern São Paulo, where important reservoirs for the electricity sector are concentrated.
Regarding the average temperature for the next six months, Inmet estimates that the central area of Brazil will be up to 1°C above the average between December and February. In the South, temperatures are expected to remain close to the average over the same period.
In March and April, there is a trend of temperatures from normal to above average for practically the whole of the South, which reduces the forecast of frost in early autumn.
According to Inmet, the new dissemination model, based on the behavior of the atmosphere and on data from more than 750 automatic and conventional meteorological stations, facilitates decision-making by the rural producer, defines the planning of hydropower generation and helps to estimate the feasibility of river transport in the country’s main hydrographic basins.
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