While regional and international parties are watching the existing developments and the interactions of the conflict between the two components in Sudan, with wide concern, given that these developments are not related to Sudan alone, but that their repercussions are transmitted to pose a threat and growing challenges outside Sudan directly and indirectly.
The last hours in Sudan were pregnant with dangerous developments, starting with the campaign of arrests that affected prominent political figures, ministers and Sudanese party leaders, to the placement of Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdok under house arrest, amid a security alert in the country.
Reactions escalated from the civil political forces and parties rejecting these developments, and they called on their supporters to take to the streets.
These developments lead the situation in Sudan to a complex scene, in line with the critical challenges facing the country, in which the agreement of necessity between the military and civil components did not last long.
While developments are still ongoing and accelerating, the question that arises now is: What are the most prominent scenarios awaiting Sudan after the recent moves, which give an indication of the course of the escalation in the crisis?
square one
Egypt’s former ambassador to Sudan, Mohamed El-Shazly, describes in exclusive statements to “Sky News Arabia”, what is happening in Sudan as “the unfortunate situation,” explaining that the cancellation of the constitutional agreement and placing the Prime Minister under house arrest with the arrest of a number of officials and ministers, And controlling the TV building, closing Khartoum Airport, suspending flights, cutting off communications and the Internet, and other successive developments during the past hours, are moves that “hit the peaceful settlement in Sudan, and bring the country back to square one again.”
It is believed that these developments lead to “the return of chaos to Sudan, and the return of international sanctions and condemnations,” while he did not rule out the recurrence of “dangerous” scenarios on Sudan’s land, such as the Syrian or Libyan scenario, inferring that there is a state of armed rebellion in certain areas, and recently the eastern crisis. All of which are indicative of “does not bode well”.
The former official also talks about the repercussions of these developments on neighboring countries, noting that any turmoil and instability is always reflected in the surrounding countries, both in terms of the influx of immigrants, as well as the impact on trade and economic relations.
He explained that there were “promising projects with Egypt, which are likely to be affected by the instability inside Sudan.”
Regional and international interactions
For his part, the journalist writer specializing in international relations, Osama Al-Dalil, does not believe that the scene in Sudan is likely to repeat scenarios similar to the Syrian or Libyan scenario; For several different considerations, one of them is that the stakeholders in Sudan’s stability and calm conditions are more than those in the interests of its dismantling.
This is evidenced by statements to “Sky News Arabia”, noting that the regional and international parties related to the Sudanese file “have an interest in its stability”, including Russia and the United States, which was expressed by recent US contacts and moves regarding the situation in Sudan.
And he continues, “Egypt is also concerned with the security and stability of Sudan, especially since any developments there affect Egypt as a neighboring country, and Sudan represents a strategic depth for Egypt, and thus poses a challenge to the national security environment.”
He added: “While events are continuing in Sudan, and while it is difficult to predict future developments, there are confirmed indications that the situation will not develop to resemble the Syrian or Libyan situation. To what the Libyan scene has reached, for example, with the multiplicity of players and stakeholders in it.”
And the journalist writer specializing in international relations warns of the consequences of this on the “eastern Sudan” crisis, saying that it “threatens the country greatly, and is exploited to stoke strife.”
He points out that the movements of the military component during the last hours – after the high frequency of political tensions and disputes with the civilian component – could pass unless there are international wills contrary to them, commenting at the same time on local reactions, and the possibility of the country falling with it into an atmosphere of chaos. extended.
He explains: “The active movements in the street certainly do not represent all segments of the Sudanese street, and there is no parliament that represents the voice of the people. The main problem of the Sudanese is an economic problem of living in the first place.”
Chaos scenarios
Local reactions to the latest developments carried calls for escalation, accompanied by observers’ fears of the repercussions on the general scene in the country.
The Sudanese Communist Party called for a “declaration of political strike and civil disobedience”, and the Sudanese Professionals Association called on citizens to “go out into the streets” to resist what it considered a coup, while the Political Bureau of the Congress Party called on the masses of the Sudanese people to “take to the streets immediately.” Moreover.
The National Umma Party described what is happening as a “violation of the constitutional document and an illegal act,” and the Unionist Rally Party called on the masses to go to the streets to “protect the revolution.”
However, the scenarios of calm and the priority of the public interest, talked about by the former Secretary-General of the Organization of African Unity, Ambassador Ahmed Hajjaj, who told the “Sky News Arabia” website that “the various and feuding Sudanese parties slipped into what the supporters of the former regime sought by raising one faction against another, Thus, Sudan has reached this current scene.
And he added: “The Sudanese people should not continue to fall into this trap, and put the higher interest of the country in mind.”
In his analysis of the recent developments, Hajjaj points out that Sudan “is on the verge of great challenges, and we must not forget that there are those who are lurking in Sudan, and the files they are preoccupied with, including those related to problems with the Ethiopian side, skirmishes and border clashes.”
He clarifies that the Sudanese people are “called upon to unite and realize the nature of those challenges (internal and external), and not to slip behind chaos scenarios, so that they can then hold legislative elections in preparation for a peaceful political transfer of power.”
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