To the Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard Casaubón The decisive hour has come for him to open his game: accept President López Obrador y Morena’s rules of the polls or publicly announce his decision to seek the presidential candidacy outside the party in power. The strategic turning point will be the electoral result in the State of Mexico next Sunday, June 4, in just nine days.
Ebrard’s meeting with Green Party militants did not have the approval of the three areas of power in that organization: Manuel Velasco’s, Jorge Emilio González (former) Niño Verde and President López Obrador himself, who has joined with the alliance of that party since 2018, after the PV had been a wild card party with the PAN, the PRI, the PRD and Morena.
Ebrard is haunted by the ghost of 1994: His boss Manuel Camacho Solís rebelled against the president’s decision Gortari Salt Flats to put as his presidential candidate Luis Donaldo Colosio, but his anger did not lead to the break and he continued within the regime; However, he used the Chiapas crisis to build a political figure who toyed with the possibility of an independent candidate, but in the end, a strategic politician, Camacho agreed with Colosio, although that agreement was drowned in the Lomas Taurinas scenario.
Despite having been a member of the PRD and Morena, Ebrard is not a party man and has a personal political project that would have to go through the inevitable closure of the López Obrador cycle and of course what Morena and the 4T reform represent.
Ebrard is not a politician of ideas, but a government official; lacks an economic policy and social policy approach and his management in the 2006-2012 DF Government Headquarters was based on the Lopez Obrador model of budgetary assistance; and as chancellor he has not had any new strategic line of foreign policy.
Until before the state elections in the State of Mexico next Sunday, June 4, Ebrard will have the opportunity to decide his own political destinybecause the results of that competition will affect, in any of its variants, the strengthening of President López Obrador to fulfill his priority task of his administration: put up an official Morena candidate and make him win.
The downside of this political mapping is that Ebrard has no chance: If Morena wins the Mexican elections, President López Obrador will have a big boost; And if Morena loses, the President of the Republic will have to rebuild his political power within the party to put up a candidate that guarantees the continuity of his project.
Ebrard never considered himself a PRD, Green or Morena cadre, he always moved based on his own personal prestige, although playing on López Obrador’s court. In 2012 he made the strategic mistake of competing with López Obrador for the presidential candidacy, but he did not dare to break despite indications that he would have won some of the polls.
Ebrard has already left very clear signs that he is not 4T, he is not Morena either and he could only offer López Obrador what the candidate Camacho offered President Salinas de Gortari before the disclosure: “with you?, less difficult closing, a good choice and a country at peace; maintain your national and international prestige; Not retirement, (but) new ways to take advantage of your political capital for the benefit of Mexico; admiration for your talent and your work”. In other words, in a few words, Ebrard would tell López Obrador: “thank you for participating.”
The big question already has an answer: Ebrard does not have the resources, structure or national party to compete against Morena.
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