The price of the zero Covid strategy in China is high. At the same time, the country fears a serious wave of illness if the restrictions are relaxed. A study now warns of more than 1.5 million deaths.
Shanghai/Munich – Chinese scientists estimate that a complete lifting of the zero-Covid strategy in China would trigger a “tsunami” of infections with 1.55 million deaths. According to their study in the science magazine Nature Medicine there could be 112 million symptomatic infections within six months. The intensive care units would then be overwhelmed: the need would be 15.6 times higher than the capacity.
Although 91 percent of Chinese are vaccinated and 53 percent are also boosted, outbreaks cannot be prevented, it said. A big problem is that in China only half of the people over 80 have been vaccinated at least twice. The Chinese vaccines from Sinopharm and Sinovac are also considered less effective against the omicron variant.
The study shows that China’s strict zero-Covid policy is based not only on political obstinacy but also on real fear. The healthcare system of an emerging country like China would not have coped with the millions of admissions of Covid patients better than hospitals in Europe or the USA. The study fears up to 5.1 million hospitalized patients with Covid. Of these, 2.7 million patients would then end up in intensive care units, write the authors led by Yu Hongjie, who conduct research primarily at Fudan University in Shanghai, but also in the USA. Because of the age disparity in China’s vaccine coverage, most of the dead would be unvaccinated people over 60.
China: No exit strategy from the zero-Covid policy
After two years of largely successful virus control and isolation, China is now a victim of its own success, as there is no infection at all. “The lack of vaccination protection and the absence of the virus mean that the Chinese population looks similar to the entire world population at the beginning of the pandemic,” said Timo Ulrichs, an expert on global health at the Akkon University of Human Sciences in Berlin, the dpa news agency. “In view of the very high infectivity of the omicron variant, the zero-Covid strategy can only be maintained with ever stricter measures,” said Ulrichs. “The question remains, ‘What comes after that?'”
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So far, the government in Beijing has not presented an exit strategy from the zero-Covid policy. Most of the 26 million residents of the port metropolis of Shanghai and tens of millions in other metropolises, especially in northeast China, have been in lockdown for more than a month. Dissatisfaction in the country with the tough measures is growing. Tens of thousands are stuck in quarantine camps under sometimes difficult conditions. There is a problem with food deliveries. Medical care is limited. In the event of a fire, fire engines cannot get through barriers. Supply chains have been disrupted, and freight traffic through the world’s largest port in Shanghai has collapsed.
Foreign companies are also suffering from the tough measures. In a recent survey by the EU Chamber of Commerce in China, three quarters of those surveyed said the corona measures had negative effects on their overall operations. 92 percent report disrupted supply chains. Representatives of the EU Chamber of Commerce across the country are therefore calling for a large-scale vaccination campaign instead of long-term tests and lockdowns.
China: key role for vaccination campaign
The researchers around Yu Hongjie also see a “key role” for vaccinations, including boosters and campaigns for older people over 60. They also see antiviral therapies and contact restrictions as helpful. There must be a combination because none of the proposals alone would be able to reduce the number of deaths to the level of normal flu outbreaks. “Whether or for how long a zero-Covid policy can be maintained is questionable,” write the study’s authors.
As recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO), all nations should prepare to “design their own pathway for the transition from a pandemic to an endemic phase”. According to the authors of the study, China is already debating how to proceed. The debate is shifting to containment strategies on how the burden on the health system can be reduced. Due to the large differences in the country, strategies would also have to be tailored differently from region to region.
Hong Kong bids farewell to zero-Covid policy
While China’s head of state Xi Jinping has only just warned to stick to the zero-Covid policy and Shanghai has even tightened the lockdowns in some cases, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region is now taking a different path. After a violent omicron wave with many deaths, Hong Kong is now beginning to relax.
Several German experts recently emphasized that they consider China’s zero-Covid policy to have failed. Ulrichs also said he did not share the fear that the healthcare system would be overloaded immediately after a cautious opening in China. “It would depend entirely on the right strategy, and there are good role models for this in other countries.” It would be advisable for China to “let the virus into the country with careful openings”.
China: Foreign vaccines are left out
Ulrichs also recommends that China should vaccinate nationwide with the four vaccines approved in the West. But so far these have not been approved. China is sticking to the narrative that its own political system is superior to the chaotic West in fighting the pandemic. And that includes their own vaccines.
The approval of Biontech’s Covid-19 vaccine in China, for example, is still not in sight. The clinical phase 2 study with the vaccine, which started there at the end of 2020, has just been extended by six months to October 2022, according to a report by Reuters. Instead, four locally developed mRNA vaccines are currently undergoing clinical trials. At the same time, China relies on traditional Chinese medicine. For example, millions of packages of a drug called Lianhua Qingwen to treat corona symptoms such as fever, cough and malaise were recently distributed to the trapped residents of Shanghai. (ck/dpa)
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