WLadimir Putin’s Ukrainian war turns out to be a campaign of annihilation. The brutality of his will to conquer challenges a basic Western assumption: the narrative that the West is now protecting Ukraine. The opposite sounds much more coherent: Ukraine protects the West. She is not only fighting for herself, but also for all the countries that would come after her: for Moldova, which Moscow has already named as the next target; for the Baltic states, whose Russophone minorities Putin might also want to “liberate”. For Poland and Moscow’s former satellites, whom NATO would have to abandon if it was to follow Putin’s withdrawal demands; for Germany, which would then be a front-line state again.
For the federal government, this means: A tank in the Ukraine protects Germany better than a tank at home. Anyone who helps a country that is defending itself against Putin’s imperialism is helping itself. Germany’s allies took this to heart during the Cold War. They protected Berlin when Nikita Khrushchev threatened nuclear weapons because they knew they were defending themselves at Checkpoint Charlie. John F. Kennedy said at the time: “All free people, wherever they live, are citizens of Berlin.”
But when the West defends itself in Ukraine, this has consequences for the definition of its goals. One conclusion is: an old-style ceasefire is no longer sufficient. The Minsk agreements of 2014 and 2015 did have merits. As long as they applied, dozens of people died every day, just one every few days. But Russia kept the conquered Crimea, and most importantly, oil, gas and euros continued to flow. Putin held parades and the West funded the hypersonic weapons now attacking Ukraine. The mix of Minsk, truce plus deal created the basis of the 2022 raid.
There must be no such false ceasefire again. If Putin is allowed to keep his new conquests as a reward for standing still for a moment and at the same time gets rid of the sanctions, that would be a triumph for him. He would have created the land bridge to the Crimea. He would gain time and money to prepare for the next war. Maybe beyond Ukraine. So now the West must do more than just stop Putin where he is and then get back to business as usual. The US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has set the line: Russia must be so fenced in that it cannot be attacked anymore. Military containment and sanctions must remain as long as the regime remains as it is.
Putin must fear war just as much as the West
However, such a strategy is risky. Putin could answer them with escalation, and his foreign minister has just indulged in nuclear hints again. But Germany, in particular, has learned that strength against blackmailers helps. The West stood firm during the Berlin crisis of the 1960s, and when the Wall fell 28 years later, it had prevailed without a war.
This time, too, the allies may have to be patient for years. Putin’s policies will remain as long as he rules. That may take a while, because most of the Russian rulers of the last hundred years left office only through death. Kennedy spoke of a “long struggle in the twilight, year after year”.
To win this battle while avoiding nuclear war, the allies will have to endure a lot: inflation, perhaps job losses. Robert Habeck and Friedrich Merz pointed this out. Allies will also have to learn to defuse their conflicts. That could work with Poland, because despite all the strife there is a common view of Russia. Hungary is getting harder.
Above all, the West will have to learn to live with nuclear blackmail. Putin senses the concerns of free societies about the bomb, and he uses them. The answer must therefore include an offer of controlled disarmament, but also a new level of defensiveness. The Bundestag’s recent decision on arms deliveries to Ukraine can only be the beginning, because Putin will only stop threatening nuclear war when he fears it as much as the West. As a supplement to America’s nuclear shield, the discussion about a European deterrent must be pushed forward.
The goal is not victory over Russia. The goal is to resist Putin’s imperial myths for as long as they remain state doctrine in Moscow. Until then, the West must support Ukraine. And until then, there must be no more business with Russia. Only then can new peace come.
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