The Ukraine war has been raging for over a year now. After a long winter, spring is slowly coming. That could be an advantage for Ukraine.
Ukraine – Military analysts have optimistic forecasts for the spring Ukraine set up. According to them, mud in particular plays a major role in the course of the Ukraine war, which should not be underestimated. The ground will have an impact on how well Russian troops can move, and Ukrainian forces are better prepared for the weather than Russian soldiers.
Russia’s President Wladimir Putin has reportedly had a plan to use winter as a weapon. He relied on frozen ground so that his troops could perform better tactical maneuvers than on the usually muddy terrain in Ukraine. At the same time, artillery strikes should target civilian infrastructure to knock out sources of heat and electricity. This strategy did not work. Now the ground is starting to get muddy again.
Spring war in Ukraine: Mud plays a crucial role
John Spencer, former US Army Major and Chair of Urban Warfare Studies at the Madison Policy Forum in New York, told the US news magazine Newsweek: “It directly affects the ability of vehicles to get off the road, to disperse [und] form a tactical formation. It has implications for vehicle maintenance, which Russia is known to struggle with. If you try to get a vehicle through the mud, not only will it get stuck, it will break.”
Therefore, the Russian army will be forced to use mainly roads, making it more vulnerable. “I think the bigger problem is that as the mud gets worse, the routes the Russians can take – both to get around and to resupply themselves – become a lot more limited,” Spencer said. “When the mud limits the roads you can take, it increases the likelihood of attacks,” he said. He also believes that the Ukrainian troops are better equipped for this weather than the Russian ones.
Ukrainian Advantage: Deliveries from the West are also decisive in the spring
In addition, while Russia has many soldiers, it does not have large quantities of high-quality military equipment. In contrast to the Ukraine, which gets the corresponding devices from the West. In the summer, the conditions would be even more favorable for Ukraine, because then the visibility would be better and the use of air forces would be easier, Spencer said.
A former US Navy captain and State Department officer, Matthew Hoh, is also vocal Newsweek thinks a particularly muddy spring could see Russia delaying “any major offensive.” Other factors in spring would also have an impact: “Rivers tend to flow faster and higher, making bridges more important and making fording and bridging more difficult. This would hamper a Russian advance, especially if bridges are destroyed.”
Selenskyj hopes for victory in spring
Nevertheless, the military experts also warn against attributing too much influence to the weather. Russia would still have long-range artillery capable of attacking Ukrainian targets from positions out of reach of Ukrainian forces. Weapons would play a big role, as would the will to fight, which would also increase among the Russians.
The President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy himself recently expressed hope. He believes his country will win in the spring. The President sees Ukraine in a decisive phase, also thanks to the arms deliveries from the western states. The Ukrainian military intelligence service also said that Ukraine could launch a new offensive in the spring to recapture areas occupied by Russia. (ale)
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