Thus the BTP-Bund differential affects the race to Colle
Back there spread threat, the feared differential between the yield of Italian BTPs and that of German Bunds which has already cost the chair of Prime Minister to Silvio Berlusconi. In recent weeks there has been much debate about how its value is not so dissimilar from the advent of Mario Draghi, compared to the previous executive, in practice diminishing at least in part the King Midas aura that the head of the government enjoys vis-à-vis the media and public opinion. However, as he points out The sun 24 hours, however, there is no counter-proof regarding what levels would have been touched if instead the former president of the ECB he had not taken the fate of the government in hand, spending his notorious authority in the international field in favor of the country.
At Palazzo Chigi, Draghi contains the spread, but at the Quirinale it would rise
The equally well-known involvement of the Prime Minister in the race to elect the new Head of State pushes Assiom Forex to predict that “the beginning of 2022 will be characterized by increases in yields due to news related to the elections and it is likely to wait for one BTP-Bund spread 150 points in the area by the end of January “, while specifying that” the level is destined to quickly fall back to 120 points if the current government is not impacted by the presidential vote “. This is because Draghi is considered “a warranty for fund management Next Generation Eu and a growth path such as the one currently set will lead to Italy outperforming Spain, reducing the spread between the ten-year years of the two countries to 30/40 basis points, from the current 60 “. What would happen, however, if Draghi happened to Sergio Mattarella as the new President of the Republic? Second Filppo Diodovich, Senior Market Strategist of Ig: “With Draghi al Quirinale and the appointment of a prime minister faithful to his political line, we expect a slightly wider spread in the short term, between 130 and 160 points “. If, on the other hand, the institutional crisis caused the castle of the current hypotheses to collapse, with the consequent exit of Draghi from the political stage, “the differential on the Italian and German ten-year even above 200, but it would be contained by the protective shield operated by the ECB through the Pepp and App plans, ”adds Diodovich.
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