Electoral political polls today June 2, 2023
POLITICAL ELECTION SURVEYS – Brothers of Italy and the Democratic Party are gaining ground, still separated by more than 10 points of detachment. This is confirmed by the latest poll carried out by Termometro Politico between 23 and 25 May, which sees the party led by Giorgia Meloni at 29.7 percent, 0.3 points more than the previous week. The Democratic Party is also up, estimated at 19.3 percent after a growth of 0.2 points, while the 5-star Movement confirms itself again at 16 percent.
Both Lega and Forza Italia are down, respectively to 9.3 percent (-0.1%) and 7.4 percent (-0.2%), while Action records a slight increase, which leads Carlo Calenda’s party to 4.1 percent (+0.1%).
They remain at 2.5 percent for Italy with Paragone and the Verdi/Left Alliance, which precede Italia viva’s 2.4 percent. Followed by +Europe at 2.3 percent (+0.1%), Sovereign and Popular Democracy at 1.4 percent (unchanged) and Popular Union at 1.4 percent (+0.1%).
HOW POLLS ARE MADE
Electoral and political polls are carried out by polling companies according to precise scientific criteria. The authors of the surveys must identify a sample to be interviewed that is sufficiently large and representative of the population to be analysed. In the case of polls on voting intentions for political parties or the confidence index of political leaders, therefore, the interviewees must adequately represent the adult Italian population, those who have the right to vote and who go to the polls. This work is done to minimize the margin of error and make the detection as reliable as possible.
Usually a political poll is considered reliable if the margin of error indicated is 3 percent with a confidence interval of 95 percent. It is precisely that of identifying a representative sample of the population that the pollsters face the greatest difficulty. Interviews for electoral political polls are usually carried out with a Cati methodology, by telephone, or Cawi, via the Internet, or mixed. To carry out the interviews, opinion poll companies rely on specialized companies.
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